Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit +170 over Minnesota

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Posted at 11:45 AM EST and are subject to change. 

Detroit +170 over Minnesota

1:10 PM EST. Rony Garcia (RHP - DET) was claimed off waivers from the Yankee organization during the 2019 offseason, and despite never having appeared above Double-A, he found himself on the Opening Day roster of the Tigers in 2020. Over the past three years, including this year, Garcia has appeared in 25 MLB games but only two as a starter. He has pitched in eight games, all in relief this year, but it’s worth noting that he worked exclusively as a starter during his four-year pro career. He has outstanding control and is beginning to tap into more strikeout potential as his body matures (he is only 24 years old). Garcia has a fastball that sits at 94 mph and can reach 97. He has three offspeed offerings: a slider, curve, and cutter. In 14 innings this year (all in relief), he has walked three and struck out 17 with a 2.57/3.13 ERA/xERA split. Chances are he will not go more than three or four frames today.

Dylan Bundy (RHP - MIN) has made six starts covering 28 innings. Over that span he has walked 7 and struck out 25. With an 89.9 MPH fastball and an 11% swing and miss rate, Bundy is more finesse than power and frankly, the finesse isn’t very good either. Dude has a BB/K split of 6/13 over his last 13 frames with an xERA of 6.22. In 23 starts last year, he posted an ERA of 6.06. Once we cast off 2020 as a short-season mirage, what emerges across his full-season xERA history is a below average (and unexciting) skill set and profile. Today he’s priced like he’s Luis Giolito.

We’re not sure why the Tigers are losing so many games but bad luck plays a part. On Monday, they outhit the Twins 12-7 and only gave up one bad hit the entire game, a grand slam in the first. The Tigers left 178 men on base that day and lost 5-4. Yesterday, Minnesota scored twice in a 2-0 victory. The Tigers are 0-2 in this series but could just as easily be 2-0. Regardless, they’re not this bad and the price on them daily is inflated to a large degree, Dylan Bundy favored in this range is another example of how inflated the prices are on the Tigers to win. We’ll stick with it.

Our Pick

Detroit +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)