Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Philadelphia +162 over Atlanta

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Odds posted at 3:15 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Philadelphia +162 over Atlanta

7:20 PM EST. Kyle Gibson (RHP - PHI) had a swinging strike rate of 16.0% after his four starts. That put him in the top 10 among swing & miss rate leaders in the majors. In May, that rate slipped a bit but it’s still well above league average. Kyle Gibson has a BB/K split of 13/37 in 43 frames covering eight starts. His control sub-indicators haven't made similar improvements (59% first-pitch strike%, 36% ball%), but his combination of whiffs and groundballs (54%) grabs our attention. So do the Phillies.

The Phillies rank 4th in MLB in OPS v lefties. They’ll face a good one here in Max Fried (LHP - ATL) but the price and the matchup make the Phillies very playable. Fried has strong skills. He’s only walked six batters in 49 innings with 47 K’s over his eight starts. No question he’s efficient but his hard-hit rate is trending the wrong way to the point where it is bordering on troublesome. Last game, 44% of balls hit were considered “line-drives or hard-hit. His line-drive rate for the season now is at an alarming 32%. Fried may indeed rack up some K’s here but there is also a good chance that the Phillies will find some gaps or go yard. In any event, we like the value here on Philadelphia with Gibson starting.



Our Pick

Philadelphia +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)