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Posted July 29, 2024 at 10:30pm. Odds subject to change.

The Olympics: Women's Tennis

Paris, France - Live on Peacock

Wager: Elina Svitolina/Barbora Krejcikova over 2½ sets (+140 at 888Sport)

8:35 AM EST. Odds were moving in favor of Elina Svitolina Monday against world's #6, Jessica Pegula, and it paid dividends. After dropping the first set because Pegula came out on fire, Svitolina found her groove and ended up winning 12 of the final 15 games. Pegula looked in very solid form leading to the big clash, which makes Svitolina's performance even more impressive. Most recently the Ukrainian got far at Wimbledon, eventually losing against finalist Jasmine Paolini. In general, 2024 has treated the 29-year old well. She got to the fourth round at the French Open, losing to Elena Rybakina (no shame there), and she only lost 13 games in three matches before an injury forced her out in Sydney. Svitolina plays hard for her country even when she's on small-circuit tours, and we have to believe her war-torn country's suffering is igniting her capabilities. As far as her style goes, her baseline movement excels on the clay of Paris. These Olympics are set for what could be her biggest run yet this season, as long as she stays healthy.

We can't say anything negative about Barbora Krejcikova, either. Who could? The Czech just had an incomparable run at Wimbledon, running through elites like Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko, Elena Rybakina, and eventually Jasmine Paolini to win the Grand Slam. When Krejcikova was at her best, her confidence was downright scary, showing little to no nerves in the biggest moments. Our exclusive concern for Krejcikova on Tuesday is a big one, though, because following up such a massive victory can't be easy to replicate just two weeks later. The psychological weight of sustaining such a form simply must be a heavy task; that's just human nature.

Svitolina is an aggressive baseliner who gets better as the match goes on, and she looks as spry as she has in 5 years. Krejcikova's current level means we can't fade her completely - beating her 2-0 seems like an almost impossible feat at this point - yet we're confident that Svitolina will overwhelm her eventually. The third set is a complete coin-flip as far as we're concerned. We lean Svitolina, but counting on both of these savages to win a set for + money is a negotiation we can accept. 

Farley

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