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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.Odds subject to change.

ATP: Atlanta

Live on the Tennis Channel

Wager: Over 2½ sets (+143 at Pinnacle)

2:20 PM EST. Mattia Bellucci goes into Atlanta with some momentum. At Wimbledon he dominated the qualifiers (losing just 2 sets in three matches), and then took Ben Shelton to a raucous 5-set barnburner, nearly beating the American phenom in the final set (Shelton won 6-4). On hard courts, Bellucci has won 83.3% of her service games over the last 12 months, a very impressive mark. His giant serve and recent form is the reason why he's the favorite in this meeting, but it's also worth noting that he's ranked 146th in the world for a reason. The 23-year old still has plenty of room to grow, evidenced in his typical downfalls in bigger Grand Slam tournaments. The first round of a major, i.e. the moment he faces a top-tier opponent, is usually when his weaknesses are revealed. As explosive as his serve can be, Bellucci's baseline movement and court IQ still need plenty of work, something his enemy will look to expose this afternoon.

Adrian Mannarino is the higher ranked player (32nd in the world and the #2 seed in this tournament), but he's a legitimate underdog, stumbling into Atlanta after losing 11 of his last 12 matches this season. The good news is his serve is also lethal on hard courts (76.6% win rate), and he has considerably more experience than his foe. At 36 years old, Mannarino was a regular late-round entry in Grand-Slams from 2014 to 2022, but recently he's trailed off a bit. He's the most prolific on hard courts, particularly when there's an American backdrop (he's gotten to the third round 5 times over the last 10 years in Flushings, NY). As good as Bellucci has looked recently, we doubt the Italian can prevent Mannarino from winning at least one set. We'll wager that this goes into the third.

Farley

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