Pinnacle N/A BET365 N/A Sportsinteraction -7½ -110 888Sport -7½ -110

Posted at 10:00 PM EST.Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Target Center - Minneapolis, MN

Wager: Minnesota -7½ (best odds: -110)

1:00 PM EST. Betting is all about finding value when the market or its corresponding gamblers are flawed in their numbers. The latter, as you know, can move numbers if they're prominent enough. Of course, the "correct number" isn't something anyone can know beforehand, but we all do our best. Modeling, forecasting spreads and totals, aggregating and extracting patterns - there are many methods. That being said, we're finding the idea of supporting the Atlanta Dream (in any way) as a terribly difficult position to take. Even if we want to, and even if we deploy every possible method to try and justify it.

There is inherent value in underdogs this week. Why? Because Tuesday and Wednesday are the final two days before a month-long break from WNBA action. The All-Star game commences on Saturday and then it's onto the Olympics, so most teams want to end this segment of the season on a high note. We imagine, because it's evident in human nature, that some teams are more desperate to do so than others. The Atlanta Dream certainly qualify. Arguably no team has been worse in June/July (actually the Dallas Wings are statistically worse in net rating, but you get the point). Their record is a lousy 3-14 since the start of June, they've lost 7 games in a row, and most importantly for Wednesday's contest: their offense is (by far) the worst in the association (like, really bad). Regardless of the opponent or situation, they just haven't shown an ability or even the awareness to improve.

Now, if the Minnesota Lynx were soaring into this contest and we could see them overlooking a team like Atlanta, we may feel differently. Spoiler alert: that's not the case. The Lynx are pissed. Losing Napheesa Collier hasn't been easy. She's their best player, on both sides of the court, and they've been without her for 4 games. They've struggled significantly in the last two, demolished by Seattle (91-63) and overrun by Caitlin Clark and the Fever in the fourth quarter just 3 days ago, which led to another loss. With or without Collier, Minnesota has been the best defense in the WNBA bar none since the start of July. And at least top-2 all season. They're at home, they need to go into the break with positive vibes( especially since they've been one of the best programs in the W all summer), and their offensive cogs know how to step up when they need to. There's a reason the Lynx have dominated the Dream this season, and we have no reason to believe it'll go otherwise on Wednesday. 

Farley

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