Pinnacle N/A BET365 U154 -115 Sportsinteraction U153½ -110 888Sport U153½ -110

Posted at 5:00 PM EST (July 11). Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle WA

Wager: MIN/SEA under 153½ (best odds: -110)

10:00 PM EST. Friday's total between the Lynx and Storm might seem low, but some light research tells a very different story. For whatever reason, call it a regression to the mean, the Minnesota Lynx have seen their offense devolve the last few weeks. Only the Atlanta Dream own a worse offensive mark in their last 7 games. On the other hand, Minnesota's defense has never been better. With or without their best player, Napheesa Collier, Minnesota has held opponents to an astonishing 70 points per game on average in their last 5, and that includes formidable offenses like the Sun, Mystics, and Liberty. They also like to run the floor at a hyper-low pace (only the Sun are slower the last 3 weeks), so it's no wonder why so many Minnesota games are exceptionally low-scoring when they face another comparable defense. 

Enter the Seattle Storm. Seattle's offense has been better than their opponent on Friday, but their defense is still the axis that keeps them together. Minnesota is the best defense in the WNBA over the last 3 weeks, but Seattle is right behind them at #2. Also like Minnesota, Seattle games are low-scoring when they oppose another quality defense, just look at the recent matchups against Chicago and Connecticut. Even better, the Storm are coming off a home loss to the reigning champions, a game where their defense played stellar in the first half (allowing just 30 points), but they capitulated in the second and the Aces took advantage. On top of that, the Lynx have bested the Storm in 3 straight games.

This contest has physicality and animosity written all over it. Combine that with the normative behavior of these two programs, and we can't look at anything else but an under. We're putting this play out early so you get the best number; it's dropping!

Farley

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