Pinnacle O21½ +102 BET365 O21½ -110 Sportsinteraction O21½ -105 888Sport O21½ -110

Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Wimbledon - Women's Semifinals

London, England - Live on the Tennis Channel and ESPN+

Rybakina/Krejcikova over 21½ games (+102 at Pinnacle)

10:30 AM EST. We haven't seen many long matches on the women's side of Wimbledon lately. Although just as unpredictable as the last few years, most battles have ended in two swift sets. Despite one player's apparently elite level of form heading into the next round, fierce competitors like Jelena Ostapenko, Elina Svitolina, Emma Navarro, Anna Kalinskaya, Yulia Putinseva, Danielle Collins, etc. have all suddenly floundered in recent rounds. Since Monday, we've watched 8 total matches on the women's side, and only one (Donna Vekic vs. Lulu Sun) went into the third round. The average amount of games? Just 18.6 per contest.

So then why do we like the over in one of the semifinals today? Well, this particular meeting is more unique than the others. Elena Rybakina has been on fire, as has Barbora Krejcikova, but they're both at a disadvantage. Unlike Jasmine Paolini and Donna Vekic, who had a nice full day of rest before today's semifinals, Rybakina and Krejcikova just played Wednesday afternoon. Krejcikova, a dark horse who's crept up to a top-25 ranking, was beyond impressive in her handling of Ostapenko in the quarterfinals, completly stifling the Latvian's momentum in the first set and then overcoming a tiebreak loss in the second, outplaying her more experienced foe in a 13-game finish. It's worth remembering that Krejcikova isn't brand new at this winning thing.  She was the French Open champion in 2021, and this year she's already shown great form with her appearance in the semifinals at the Australian Open to start the season. She can and will make life difficult for the favorite, that much we can trust.

Elena Rybakina, the Kasakhstani beauty who won Wimbledon two years ago, has been on an absolute tear in London so far, but we also know how she can be affected by bad scheduling. She withdrew from tournaments late last season because of what she felt was an unfair rest disadvantage on tour, and as elite as she is, we've seen uncontrolled emotions impede her form plenty of times in the past. Errors and unnecessary risk-taking got her booted out of the Australian Open in the second round this year, falling to Anna Blinkova, a formidable but inferior player, and the gritty Jasmine Paolini pushed her to three sets and beat her in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.

Barbora Krejcikova is not the kind of player who randomly loses form, even on short rest. While it's hard to argue against the fact that Rybakina is the better of the two, we doubt a win will come as easily against the feisty Czech. This total has been pushed up and we're getting a great deal from Pinnacle; a value wager on the over is there for the taking.

Farley

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