Pinnacle N/A BET365 -2½ -110 Sportsinteraction N/A 888Sport -2½ -110

Posted at 2:45 PM EST (July 9). Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

Wager: New York -2½ (best odds: -110 at 888Sport)

11:00 AM EST (Wednesday). The Connecticut Sun have issues when they're facing good offenses. Lately, after some humbling losses to better programs like the Aces and Storm (and even a loss to the Dream recently, not a good program, but indicative of how vulnerable Connecticut can be), they've managed to stack together wins against struggling foes. The Mercury and Lynx, two of the most surprising "good teams" in the W this year, are regressing midway through the season, perhaps due to how consistently effective they were early. The Sun beat them both and throttled the Dream in a revenge game the last week, but we're not that impressed. The Mercury and Lynx practically beat themselves in those battles (Phoenix was a disgusting 3-17 from beyond the arc and Minnesota looked lifeless in their loss), and we're hesitant to call the Sun a "complete team." While their offense can be productive (they rate top-3 through 21 games, after all), they don't have that one player who can put the team on her back when the going gets tough. When their opponent cannot relate, they have issues, just like they did in their first battle against New York.

The New York Liberty are on their way to another big season, but don't tell them that. After allowing Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever to come back from an 11-point deficit on Sunday, handing New York a loss in a game they had in the bag, the visiting Liberty won't be at their friendliest when they battle their rival at Mohegan Sun Arena. It was only New York's third loss in over a month as they've once again ascended to the top-spot in the East. Regardless, although both outfits are similar in their defensive efficiency (New York actually ranked higher, 3rd, than the Sun, 5th, their last 5 games), the Liberty are the far better operation on offense. Sabrina Ionescu has been amazing all season (19 points, 6.3 assists per game), often making the clutch shots her team needs in desperate moments, and Breanna Stewart is up to her usual shtick as well (19 points, 9 rebounds per game). The WNBA's 2nd ranked unit is just a tiny bit less efficient than the best offense in the association (Las Vegas), and their effective field goal percentage is in a different planet than what Connecticut can offer (NY is #1, CT is #7).

If we were strictly betting on spot-plays, we'd avoid wagering on New York on Wednesday. They have a back-to-back on Wednesday-Thursday, welcoming the feisty Chicago Sky to their home floor on Thursday, and they have 4 games in 6 days this week. But their second showdown against the Sun comes at a bad time for Connecticut, too, a team that's regained some confidence and momentum but remains challenged against the most elite operations. New York is one of those operations, and we trust their shooters and leaders to overwhelm their opponent again while they avenge Sunday's loss. 

Farley

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