Pinnacle +9½ -106 BET365 +9½ -110 Sportsinteraction +8½ -105 888Sport +9½ -117

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

Live on Ion

Wager: Atlanta +9½ (best odds: --106 at Pinnacle)

10:00 PM EST. No matter which way you look at it, this is a terrible spot for the Connecticut Sun. They scored a win last night but they needed OT to get it, and on Monday they have a big road matchup at Phoenix. In their way is the Atlanta Dream on Friday night, a squad that scored just 50 points in their first matchup. This would be an easy game for Connecticut to overlook, and an opening conservative spread suggests that's exactly what oddsmakers initially expected. Bettors are pushing the number up now, but we must disagree.

The Atlanta Dream can at least play defense, an area where they rank 6th overall in the association. Over the course of the last two weeks, they faced some of the hottest teams in the W, getting routed by New York and Minnesota, and even losing by margin to the Indiana Fever. But everybody knows, because Caitlin Clark is a member of the Fever, that Indiana has been a much better program and a team on the rise in June. 

Meanwhile, we can make the case that Connecticut is on the exact opposite path. They lost two of their last three games and were lucky to steal a win in DC last night, at one point facing a 7-point deficit deep into the fourth quarter. To their credit, they rallied and came back and forced overtime, but that expended energy on offense will not bode well against Atlanta. The Dream are due to positively regress defensively after some regrettable showings, and the Sun are a bottom-3 offense in their last 5 games. Not to mention, Atlanta has had five whole days to rest and prepare for this matchup. This is too much inflation. 

Chris R. Farley

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