Pinnacle N/A BET365 O161½ -110 Sportsinteraction O158½ -110 888Sport O161½ -110

Posted at 12:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

UBS Arena, Elmont, New York

Wager: MIN/NYL over 158½ (best odds: -108 at Pinnacle)

8:05 PM EST (Tuesday, June 25). When we first saw the listed total for this game, we were dumbfounded. Sure, the Liberty only scored 67 points in their other matchup with the Lynx this season, and we know that Minnesota is more well-known for their defense, but it’s a misnomer to assume this will be a lower-scoring game. New York leads the WNBA in pace over their last 5 games, and they’ve been on a scoring tear for 2 weeks straight, averaging a whopping 94 ppg in their last 6 contests. Minnesota is no slouch, either, averaging 84 ppg in their last 10, and 84.5 this season. And they're happy to oblige if and when New York decides to run the floor at a frenetic tempo-- some of Minnesota's most memorable wins came by outperforming high-octane offenses, including a 100-86 barnburner against Las Vegas. They'lle be ready, and New York will be ready to exact some revenge.

It’s not arguable that no team has been more impressive in June than the New York Liberty. Blowing out their opponents by 14.4 ppg in 9 June victories, they’re only loss this month came at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury, a team on the rise and another dangerous new contender in the Western Conference. That game ended 8 points away from a 200-burger, by the way. In any case, the Liberty shot a ridiculous 38.2% from the field and just 24% from beyond the arc in their first matchup; we highly doubt that happens in game two, at home.

The Liberty are the #1 rated offense in the WNBA this season and the 2nd place Aces really aren't close. New York will want to overwhelm the Lynx with their home crowd behind them, in a big marquee matchup that more than usual will watch. That's what they've done game in, game out throughout June, eclipsing 90 points in nearly every contest. Ths total has fluctuated a little bit but we want to get on top of it now. We're happy to bet more than our usual 2 units for a 3 unit wager. Plain and simple: we think the market is way off on this number.

Farley

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------