Pinnacle O165½ -114 BET365 O165 -110 Sportsinteraction O164½ -110 888Sport O165½ -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Michelob ULTRA Arena - Las Vegas, NV

Wager: Over 164½ (best odds: -110 at SportsInteraction)

10:00 PM EST. The total in the marquee battle between the Aces and Sun is moving up, but it’s not moving up enough. Oddsmakers continue to underestimate the scoring prowess of WNBA teams, leaning towards more defense in big showdowns like we’ll see tonight. But like yesterday, books are ignoring the nature of the matchup itself. We’ll start with Vegas. 

The Aces have been up and down this year so far, but their last performance was a good indication that perhaps they’ve woken up. After losing four of their last five games, Vegas stepped up and overwhelmed one of the best defenses in the W, dropping 93 points on the Seattle Storm in an 11-point win two nights ago at home. They shot a staggering 55.6% from the field. That might seem like something unrepeatable, but that’s what we’ve gotten used to from last year‘s champions. They run the floor at the fastest pace in the association and although they haven’t seen as much success in the win column this summer, they still lead all teams in points per game (87.6). And of course there’s A’ja Wilson. The 6’4” 27 year old is at the height of her powers, averaging 28 ppg on 52% from the field and over 11 rebounds per game. Those are Shaq-like numbers, marks that represent her supreme dominance this season. She scored 27 against Seattle in their last win and eclipsed her average output in 3 of her last 5 games. We expect more of the same this evening. 

Tonight, the Aces were afforded another great spot to keep their momentum going, against the league’s #1 defense. That designation has a lot to do with why this total isn’t even higher, but we don’t see Connecticut’s resistance having the same effect on Friday’s total. Firstly, the Sun are no chumps on offense, either, ranking top-3 in field goal percentage and top-4 in offensive efficiency this summer. Vegas still ranks a lowly 8th on defense, so the Sun should have ample opportunities to find a good shot. Secondly, while Connecticut’s defense has been impressive, they’ve also had a favorable schedule. They earned an impressive overtime victory against Minnesota in May, but when they met one of the W’s best offenses, New York scored 82 points and beat them on their home court. 

The Aces are favored for a reason, and they just put up 94 points against a top 3 defense (Seattle), finally looking like the juggernaut they were last summer. The Sun are 13-1, and yet they remain over 5-point underdogs against last year’s champions on the road. It’s tempting to take Connecticut, but we love the leadership of A’ja Wilson and a resurgent Aces’ squad to control the tempo of tonight’s contest and to push the score up to 170+. Regression is looming on both ends, and that suggests a clear over.

Farley

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