Pinnacle O164 -117 BET365 O164 -110 Sportsinteraction O164½ -110 888Sport O164½ -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Barclays Center - Brooklyn NY

Wager: Over 164 (best odds: -110 at Bet365)

7:00 PM EST. We've been following a rather simple formula when it comes to betting WNBA totals and we'll keep applying it until it doesn't work. Of course no method is an absolute fail-safe at any point in any sport when it comes to gambling, but patterns in a given marketplace are not uncommon. Oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to the scoring capability of most of these programs, especially when it's a battle between an elite squad (in this case, the New York Liberty) and an inferior outfit (their opponent, the L.A. Sparks). It's easy to dismiss the idea of a high-scoring contest since the Liberty exhibit a far better defense than the Sparks, a team that already struggles offensively, but that thinking is flawed, especially when we consider other factors.

Firstly, the Liberty's offense has been unstoppable. In fact, as we've seen throughout June, they're already peeking. New York is averaging 90 ppg this month, they've scored 90+ in three straight games, and they've only failed to eclipse 88 points in 2 of their 7 June battles. That's pretty damn impressive. Even better for their scoring ability tonight, L.A.'s defense has dropped from 8th to 11th overall in their last five games, just one spot away from the worst mark in the association. The pace of both teams, on the other hand, has gotten faster, and even the Sparks have shown some improvement offensively (they moved from 11th to 8th overall in their last five).  And it doesn't hurt that New York is coming off a 99-93 scoring showcase/loss in Phoenix just two days ago. That should fire up the favorites, back at home, to explode early, while we could see their defense lacking after such a hard-fought war. 

The Sparks just got done facing 4 straight above-average defenses over the last 9 days. The Liberty have a top-ranked defense, too, but we like their offensive prowess, like their top-rating in true shooting percentage, to tilt this contest to the over. We also expect the Sparks, who have a double-header in Brooklyn against the same program on Saturday, to bring their best effort against the East's top team. The Liberty are appropriately 14-point favorites tonight, which suggests the obvious - they'll be lighting up the scoreboard. Most likely, all New York has to do is reach 90 points, their average in June and a total that they've eclipsed against much better defenses, for an over to hit. We like our chances.

Farley

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