Tennis: WTA Berlin
Kasatkina/Sabalenka over 19½ +100

Pinnacle O19½ +100 BET365 O19½ -110 Sportsinteraction O20½ +110 888Sport O19½ -110

Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Women's Singles Tennis

WTA Berlin 2024

Wager: Over 19½ (best odds: +100 at Pinnacle)

1:15 PM EST. Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t played any tennis since early June, likely still reeling after a surprising loss to Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals of the French Open. Many had Sabalenka as their pick to win at Roland Garros, since she’s looked so dominant on clay surfaces throughout the winter and spring. She had already gained momentum after an impressive grand slam title at the Australian Open to start the season, but she never got a chance to go face-to-face with the world’s #1, Iga Swiatek, in France. After such emotional roller-coasters, we often see even the best tennis players come out flat in the following tournament, which is almost always a smaller and less watched event. Motivation must be manufactured in these instances, and we’ve certainly seen Sabalenka fall short in such scenarios before. For example, just three weeks after her win in Sydney, the Belarusian dropped her first round match against Donna Vekic in Madrid, losing the last two sets 6-3 and 6-0. In Berlin we see a very similar setup for Sabalenka, against an even better opponent.

Daria Kasatkina is no slouch. Besides some wins on smaller circuits, she hasn’t been that stellar in 2024, but we’ve seen her go toe-to-toe with the best players in the world and she rarely looks outmatched. A former top 10 competitor, Kasatkina currently ranks 14th in the world. At 27 years old, she is in her prime, with ample experience against virtually every foe on the WTA. She is known for her steady serve and even steadier disposition during matches, a demeanor we love for today's clash. Last year she found success early in the season at Roland Garros, making it to the semifinals before losing to Swiatek, hardly a shameful result. The surge was more evidence of how dangerous and consistent the Russian can be when she’s in top form, something she’ll seek to rediscover in Berlin.

It’s fair to say that Daria Kasatkina needs a good run in Berlin way more than Aryna Sabalenka, who may be subconsciously itching for a break after a long and perilous journey in Paris. Either way, today’s total is way too low considering how formidable a position this is for the underdog. Consider a ML bet on Kasatkina; we’ll wager on a longer battle and wouldn’t be surprised if she stole a set, maybe two!

Farley

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Our Pick

Kasatkina/Sabalenka over 19½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

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