Pinnacle U162½ -108 BET365 U162 -110 Sportsinteraction U162½ -110 888Sport U162½ -118

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Target Center - Minneapolis, MN

Wager: Under 162½ (best odds: -108 at Pinnacle)

8:00 PM EST.  Sportsbooks are forced to inflate tonight’s total between the Lynx and Dream because of the result of their first battle. We think that was an outlier. The Dream and Lynx are two of the slowest teams in the WNBA, ranking 10th and 11th this season, and each outfit has chosen an even more methodical tempo in their last five games (a rating of 94.92, trust us— that’s slow). In their first battle, just a few games into the season, Minnesota shot 50% from the field on the road against an Atlanta squad that looked lost for half the contest. The Dream dropped just 79 points as they tried to chase the surging Lynx, often stuttered by their opponent’s A+ defense, while the Dream looked like they couldn’t stop a 12 year old from scoring.

Things have changed since that first clash. While the Lynx are still riding high, 11-3 overall and still scoring high totals against good teams, the Atlanta defense has improved mightily. Since their last loss to the Lynx, the Dream are top-5 in defensive efficiency, permitting just 77.5 ppg, and they're 4-4 as a result. They're still not an elite, but that's an indication of a different group than what we saw before the first matchup.

The Lynx are also due for at least a little regression. Up until this point, one of the WNBA's best defenses is also shooting 46.3% from the field (1st) and 40.5% from beyond the arc (also 1st). Our apologies to Minnesota backers but, that's not sustainable. The Lynx are also coming off two huge wins in the last 10 days, clobbering their two Western Conference foes (Seattle and Vegas), and they have another big showdown coming up against the surging Phoenix Mercury in just three days following tonight's battle. This would be an easy game for Minnesota to overlook, while the Dream and their improving defense will be hyper-motivated to take vengeance on the top team in the West. This total has ticked up too high.

Farley

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