WNBA Regular Season
New York/Phoenix over 169½ -108

Pinnacle O169½ -108 BET365 O170 -110 Sportsinteraction O170½ -110 888Sport O169½ -118

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Footprint Center - Phoenix, AZ

Wager: Over 169½ (best odds: -108 at Pinnacle)

10:05 PM EST. The Phoenix Mercury are a much better operation in 2024, and most of that is because of their offensive resurgence. The combination of Brittney Griner and Kahleah Copper has been lethal, producing more than half of their point totals on a nightly basis (combined 46 ppg), and their surrounding cast has benefitted. It's a roster made up of mostly veterans, formidable chess pieces like Diana Taurasi (42), Rebecca Allen (31), and Natasha Cloud (32), and they're more in-sync this season. A big part of that is a settled-in Brittney Griner who, following her traumatic return to America in late 2022 after being held captive in Russia for nearly a year, clearly needed some time to readjust. She's been at the top of her game this summer, producing 22 points and 8 rebounds per game for her team, a dominant force in a front court that needed it. Phoenix has also changed their style of play in 2024, forcing the issue more on offense and becoming a top three team in tempo. And they play even faster at home. Making tonight's wager even more enticing, the Mercury have won three of their last four games and they averaged 86 ppg in June.

The New York Liberty need no introduction. They've won 8 games in a row, a streak that began with a win against Phoenix in a game that produced 159 points even though neither team shot well. Clearly the best team in the WNBA at this juncture, like their opponent tonight their offense is the anchor of their team, a unit that has produced 88.2 ppg over their last 8 victories. They are the #1 rated offense in the W through a month of action and show 0 signs of slowing down. And, fortunately for our wager, the Phoenix defense is a bottom-4 group at home, while their offense is second only to New York. 

When two unfamiliar opponents meet, especially two offenses that are having the same success as Phoenix and New York, we usually see a showcase of points. The Mercury should be able to enforce more control over the contest at home, which means a higher pace, and we trust that both offenses will play aggressively in an effort to one-up the other for 48 minutes. This total is high, but it's not high enough.

Farley

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Our Pick

New York/Phoenix over 169½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

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