Pinnacle O156 -107 BET365 O156½ -110 Sportsinteraction O156½ -1205 888Sport O156½ -118

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

WNBA Regular Season

Gateway Center - Live on MNMT

Wager: Over 156½ (-107 at Pinnacle)

7:35 PM EST. We’re not sure if you heard, but the Washington Mystics are not a good WNBA team. At 0-12, the Mystics have already competed in over 25% of their regular season, which means that any chance at the postseason would be damn near miraculous at this point. And while their offense needs a lot of work and surely its inefficiency is one of the reasons why they can’t win a game, their defense is the bigger culprit. Washington’s offense actually shows some positive elements, like their 2nd place rating and assist percentage, and 8th place rankings in offensive rebounding and effective field goal percentage. But what makes the Mystics so prone to blowouts is the combination of their poor defense and subjective choice to play at a fast pace. Effective offenses can easily take advantage of this combination, as we’ve seen very clearly in their horrendous 83.6 ppg allowed. Lately the Washington offense has looked better, too, producing over 83 points in their last two games, but of course their defense shit the bed and it’s still brought losses.

Enter The Atlanta Dream. Atlanta's offense hasn't been as consistent this season, and their tempo has dropped from one of the fastest teams in the WNBA last year to currently 10th out of 12 teams. But we should also consider who the Atlanta Dream have faced. Their season started off with the same high-scoring games that we've come to expect from Atlanta, contests that soared over 170 points against the Sparks and the Mercury. But then their schedule got a lot harder. The Dream have opposed all of the WNBA's best defenses over the last few weeks: the Lynx, the Aces, the Sun, the Liberty, and the Sky. And while they've had a few clunkers, like a 50-point outing at home against Connecticut and a 61-point showing at home against New York, they put up impressive numbers against the other 3 programs. The resistance will be considerably softer tonight.

Atlanta's offense is a work in progress and they've had three days to prepare for Washington. The Mystics might as well experiment and play loose since their season is realistically over, which usually means more points. Why would any team want to increase defensive tenacity and physicality and risk injury in their predicament? We wouldn't. This total is ticking up for a reason, and we'll follow the steam.

Farley

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------