Posted Wednesday, June 7. Odds subject to change.

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Canadian Open Preview

Sports bettors might be rolling their eyes in frustration that we have a completely new course, Oakdale Golf & Country Club, to contend with but we won’t be. Instead, we see it as an opportunity to possibly cash in on a longshot. This layout has never hosted a professional tournament of any consequence, so we’re taking a stab in the dark as to what will be required.

One thing we do know is that the layout is a short 7,264 yards for its Par 72, and having looked at the hole-by-hole (available on the Oakdale website), it does appear that approach play from within the 100-yard range will be vital – more than a handful of Par 4 holes here are under or just over the 400-yard mark.

It’s also worth noting the unique scorecard – three Par 5s, three Par 3s and 12 Par 4s – and the final hole, which is a Par 5 measuring just 496 yards – one of the shortest on TOUR. It does, however, play as one of the steepest uphill holes you are likely to see at this level too.

The greens are a Bentgrass/Poa mix, which tend to run slower than purer grasses – Poa is particularly hardy and so stands up to the colder weather. Another item for the notebook is that Stanley Thompson designed 18 of the 27 holes that make up Oakdale’s real estate, with a composite 18 of those used for the Canadian Open. Interestingly, Mark Andrew was called upon to restore the other nine to Thompson’s initial blueprints, while that same Thompson-Andrew combination was at play at the host of last year’s Canadian Open, St George’s. Perhaps that edition holds some useful clues

What We’re Looking For

As always with an event played at a golf course never-before-seen from a tournament perspective, we have to take a stab at something so let’s focus on what we do know. The Thompson/Andrew lineage of designer/renovator was in play at St George’s, which was also laid with Bentgrass/Poa greens at a parklands venue that looks pretty similar to that of Oakdale. That leaderboard, which features the best players in the field at the top, could be of interest.

Having tried to map out each hole, it’s quite possible that laying up and hitting approaches from 100 yards or in will be the order of the day this week. Several of the Par 4s will play at less than 400 yards, and while some will be attacked off the tee most will simply hit a fairway wood and then hit a wedge close – that’s the plan, anyway. The routing of the Par 5s also hints at laying up rather than full attack mode, so again wedge play could be vitally important.

We will have to wait and see if Oakdale can be overpowered, but total driving could also be a useful stat this week – length is always an advantage, but some of the tree-lines appear to be pretty thick and so errant drives are likely to result in blocked out approach shots. And remember that Bentgrass/Poa combination on the greens. That should lead to pure surfaces, but they will probably run a little slower than normal – Californians and those with form on the West Coast swing will perhaps be in their element.

Here’s our list of players that hold value with a decent chance to win.

Harry Hall 90-1

Although you wouldn’t describe Oakdale as ‘tight’ at first glance, some of the mature tree-lines do leave little room off the tee. Those were the conditions at Colonial where Harry Hall had a chance to win a maiden PGA TOUR title a few weeks ago – the Brit admitting that ‘mistakes’ ultimately cost him a shot at the trophy. But that T3 finish is notable, and Hall’s excellence on approach from 125 yards and inside should stand him in excellent stead at a layout where making birdies on the back of accurate wedge play looks to be the route to success. Hall ranks 6th on TOUR in SG: Putting, 28th in Approaches from 50-125 yards and 28th in Birdie Average. At this price, he’s worth a bet.

Lee Hodges 90-1

Talk about your game clicking. In his last two starts, Lee Hodges has gained +1.42 and +1.25 on the field on approach – the latter of which, T12 at the Memorial, saw him close out with a round of +4, which indicated how well he was playing up until Sunday. The plot thickens, as we note that Hodges’ best putting performances this season have come on Poa overseeded greens, so here’s a player with plenty of upside at a price that can be described as very agreeable.

Vincent Norrman 100-1

Early on in his PGA TOUR career, Vincent Norrman was a bomb-and-gouge merchant with little finesse to his game. But the 25-year-old is clearly learning his craft and has started to add quality in his approach play too. The Swede has gained strokes on approach on the field in his last four stroke-play starts. That has led to T8 at the Byron Nelson and T18 at the Mexico Open, with Norrman bringing to mind another big hitter whose all-round game improved: Cameron Champ. He’s won three times on the PGA TOUR now, and Norrman will be hoping to make similar progress.

Carson Young 125-1

Although not the pre-eminent C.Young in this week’s field, Carson deserves credit for his continued ascendance on the PGA TOUR. He may lack Cameron’s explosive driving, but Carson Young finds plenty of fairways and had benefited of late in an uptick in his approach play – strokes gained in that department have led to T14, T15, T19 and T21 finishes on TOUR since the start of April alone. His season-long stats are nothing to write home about, but based on his form in the past eight weeks, Young should comfortably outperform expectations in Canada.

Mark Hubbard 110-1

Since the start of April, Mark Hubbard has been in electrifying form with irons and wedges – gaining strokes on the field on approach in all six of his strokeplay outings. That’s a run that has commanded six top-30 finishes, including T9 at the Charles Schwab and T11 at the Mexico Open, so Hubbard heads to Canada feeling pretty good about his game. He will pick and plot his way around Oakdale, and will surely benefit from his college education in California when it comes to reading these Poa-infused greens. Hubbard ranks 23rd ON TOUR in Total Birdies, 27th on SG: Approach and 39th on SG: Tee-to-Green.

Sherwood

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