US Open
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Posted June 15 at 1:00 PM EST prior to tee-off and are subject to change. 

US Open Preview

It perhaps won’t have escaped your attention that there’s something of a civil war in golf right now. The likes of Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed have pledged allegiance to the rebel LIV Golf Tour, and while they have been suspended from competing in PGA TOUR events, it’s actually the USGA that presides over the U.S. Open – all that have defected are still allowed to play in the third major of 2022.

Aside from that morally questionable lot, the great and the good that have remained loyal to the PGA TOUR will be in town. Scottie Scheffler could become just the sixth man to win the Masters and the U.S. Open in the same season, while the in-form McIlroy, Thomas, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris will be hoping to ride out the crest of their wave. Jon Rahm defends the title he won at Torrey Pines 12 months ago, while other former U.S. Open winners such as Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose – fresh from nearly breaking 60 at the Canadian Open on Sunday – will have a chance to join an exclusive club of multiple-time champions in this event.

Course Preview (Brookline)

It’s that time of year when professional golfers take to social media to post their ‘look how long the rough is at ….’ videos. There’s plenty already out there relating to The Country Club, with DP World Tour star Guido Migliozzi one of the first to reveal the depravity in store for those who miss the fairway. The Massachusetts venue has been given a makeover by Gil Hanse, and as we saw with his work at Southern Hills – the home of the PGA Championship a few weeks ago – he isn’t afraid to make the players work for their win. Justin Thomas battled round in -5 there, and some of Hanse’s hallmarks will find their way to The Country Club. Those include small, postage stamp style Poa Annua greens, many of which have unique contours and some devilish false fronts and run-offs. Those, allied to the lush rough as already mentioned, confirms that this will be a U.S. Open course in both name and nature.

It is expected to play at around 7,254 yards for its Par 70, which will have just two Par 5 holes on which to make birdies or better, while water is very much in play on at least four holes on the real estate – allied to 75+ bunkers. The tight fairways are tree-lined and, while not necessarily doglegging in nature at first glance, will still require some shot shaping to keep balls out of the rough stuff. All in all, The Country Club should provide the archetypal U.S. Open test this week.

Weather Forecast for Brookline, MA

Even on a calm, sunny day, The Country Club is a tough nut to crack. But look at these predicted wind speeds for Thursday through Saturday – 16mph, 14mph, 15mph, 12mph. Those are considerable enough to change the dynamics of this tournament. It will be pretty warm too, with temperatures ranging from 75-87˚F from Thursday through Saturday, and then down to an estimated 69˚F on Sunday.

What We’re Looking For

Even though the U.S. Open moves home on an annual basis, it’s usually the same skill sets – and the same sorts of players – who thrive in this event. You have to hit fairways at The Country Club – there’s not going to be any place for dropping bombs and then wedging in out of this rough. And with tiny greens to aim at and a considerable breeze forecast, clearly iron play, perhaps from high angles to hold these lightning-quick surfaces, will be vital. Those are the tangibles, and of the intangibles we’re looking for players with the strength of mind and perseverance to grind out par and know that a score of (probably) single digits under par will be enough to win this event. It won’t be a fun week for the players at the U.S. Open, but for bettors, it will be fascinating to try and choose players that step up in such treacherous conditions and that have the right state of mind for 4 grueling days.

Mito Pereira 70-1

It’s very rare that players that are out-of-form just turn up at the U.S. Open and win from out of nowhere. The history books show us that form is key heading into such a tough event, and so Mito has to be of interest as a result. He’s another young stud who is in the flush of fine form. The Chilean almost won his maiden PGA TOUR title at the PGA Championship – a catastrophic final round of 75 ending those hopes, but time is a great healer and we expect Pereira to actually have benefitted from that experience. Since then he has finished T7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T13 at the Memorial Tournament, so Pereira isn’t down in the dumps by any means – in fact, he probably fancies a slice of redemption instead. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, he’s in the 50 to 75-1 range weekly and he’s going to pop soon. We must be there when he does (Risking 0.2 units to win 14 units)

Abraham Ancer 80-1

Ranking third on the PGA TOUR for Driving Accuracy, and rock solid on approach in that 150-200 yard category, Abraham Ancer has the game to succeed at The Country Club. Whether this frustratingly inconsistent performer actually brings his A-game to Massachusetts remains to be seen, but his top-10 return from the PGA Championship was proof positive that the Mexican can hang with the best of them. He’s gained strokes on the field with putter in hand in four of his last six starts too, so if Ancer can bring all of the elements of his game together, he’ll be on the leaderboard on the weekend and that’s all we can ask (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Brian Harman 150-1

While not the flashiest of picks trying to get to the weekend is half the battle in the U.S. Open, and players like Brian Harman at this inflated price could end up being a bargain bargain. Harman has featured over the weekend in 15 of his 19 starts this term, and he is at his best when exposed to conditions suited to his short but accurate play. T18 last time out at the tight and testing Colonial Country Club is evidence of that, and all the signs are that Harman should enjoy something of an edge at The Country Club in Brookline too. He ranks 12th ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy, 37th in Scrambling and 37th in Scoring Average. He could actually do this (Risking 0.2 units to win 30 and also risking 0.2 units to win .5 units to finish Top 5 @ 25-1).

Mackenzie Hughes 250-1

Mackenzie Hughes probably won’t win but he’s worth a bet at a price like this because the odds are not only great but hugely disrespectful. Hughes has thrived on courses like this in the past. In fact, at the last U.S. open, he held the lead after the first round and was paired on the final day with Louis Oosthuizen in the final group Sunday. At that time, he was ranked 30th in the world and it’s all because of his great ranking in key categories (8th in in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Hughes is having a rough year but there were so many factors contributing. He’s now starting to peak with back-to-back cuts made at the Memorial and RBC Canadian Open where he finished 37th and 28th respectively (Risking 0.2 units to win 50 units and 0.2 units to win 8 units to Finish Top 5 at 40-1)

Davis Riley 75-1

Almost forgot to add him but he’s another pro we’re following closely that we trust is ready to pop (Risking 0.2 units to win 15 units).

Head-to-Head matchups

This week we’re going to play a bunch of Head-to-Head matchups and we’re going to target players that defected to the LIV Tour for several reasons. For one, it is virtually impossible to take the human element out of anything. The defectors will all have to all deal with the wrath of the media and public. We’re not sure how the fans will react but we’re fairly confident that they’ll be thousands in attendance rooting against them. There’s also the fatigue factor, as they played across the pond last week and will now play on a grueling course this week. Finally, many of the defectors made negative statements against LIV Golf until they were offered, as DJ put it, “Money I cannot refuse”. Golf is tough enough without distractions but this week, for all the defectors playing in the US Open, it’s going to be nearly impossible to be at their best.

H2H matchups differ from book-to-book. Our recommendation is to bet PGA players against LIV defectors.

(Pinnacle)

Brooks Koepka +118 over Dustin Johnson (Bet 365)

Davis Riley +118 over Talor Gooch

Hideki Matsuyama -122 over Dustin Johnson

Russell Henley -117 over Talor Gooch

Alex Noren +105 over Sergio Garcia

Keegan Bradley -107 over Louis Oosthuizen

Cameron Tringale -104 over Branden Grace

Adam Hadwin -107 over Branden Grace

Cameron Tringale -126 over Kevin Na

Sungjae Im -126 over Dustin Johnson

Gary Woodland -118 over Patrick Reed

Harris English -108 over Bryce Dechambeau.
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Wagers Won

 

Davis Riley +118 over Talor Gooch W

 

Hideki Matsuyama -122 over Dustin Johnson W

 

Keegan Bradley -107 over Louis Oosthuizen W

 

Cameron Tringale -104 over Branden Grace W

 

Adam Hadwin -107 over Branden Grace W

 

Cameron Tringale -126 over Kevin Na W

 

Gary Woodland -118 over Patrick Reed W

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Wagers Lost

 

Brooks Koepka +118 over Dustin Johnson (Bet 365) L

 

Russell Henley -117 over Talor Gooch L

 

Alex Noren +105 over Sergio Garcia L

 

Sungjae Im -126 over Dustin Johnson L

 

Harris English -108 over Bryce Dechambeau L

 

To win outright on 5 pros is -1.2 units
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14.36 units in wins - 11.96 in losses = a net profit of 2.40 units for this event.



Our Pick

PGA Wagers (Risking 28.5 units - To Win: 0.00)

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