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Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Ottawa +3 over Calgary

9:00 PM EST. It wasn’t that long ago that the Redblacks were market darlings, having won and covered three straight and four of five heading into last Thursday’s showdown with the Roughriders at home in Ottawa. The Redblacks were a -3-point favorite in that game with the Roughies, and they were a consensus choice in the market, which could be why there has been such a shift in the market’s perception of the Redblacks here in Week 11.

In case you missed it, the Redblacks played a plodding game against Saskatchewan in which they went into halftime tied 3-3. The fireworks never really went off in that game as both sides traded scores over the final two quarters, with the Redblacks kicking a 47-yard field goal with zeros on the clock to send that game to overtime. Nothing was settled in the OT mini-game, and so the final ended 22-22, a real “sister kisser” as they say. The final score may not have settled anything on the field, but at the pay window, it was a loss for Ottawa, which is not how you make friends in a market that values wins over all else.

While the market is fickle, it also loves a good “revenge” story, which has been the narrative heading into tonight, as these two teams played in Ottawa in Week 8, where the Stampeders were blasted 33-6. Now, that result came about for a number of reasons, but one of them was the fact the Stamps had to play on a short week, which is tough to do. With the CFL moving to a (mostly) game-a-day Thursday through Sunday schedule, there are going to be situations where teams are not playing on proper rest. Well, the Redblacks just so happen to have caught the Stamps in this situation once again, as Calgary is playing this one on six days' rest after playing in Toronto last Friday. It’s not the most egregious short-schedule spot of the season, but it’s one nonetheless, and we’re not going to ignore it. Oh, that “revenge” angle is as old and tired as any angle in sports wagering, and we’d advise you not to pay attention to it. It’s lazy and low-hanging fruit for the talking heads, but those talking heads have an influence on the market, so it’s worth mentioning here.

To close, this line opened with the Stamps laying just -1½ points on their home turf, but the market got a hold of that number, with the “revenge” narrative driving much of the coverage. The switch at QB for Ottawa has also had an influence, as they put starter Dru Brown on the IL and will send out veteran Jeremiah Masoli for his first start of the season. Again, the narrative from the talking heads is that Masoli will be rusty, and maybe he will be, but he’s been practicing for a month after starting the year on the six-game injured list, and he’s been working with the first team in advance of this game. Win, lose, or draw, the Redblacks are being sold short here, and man for man, they are the far superior side. That makes taking back the inflated points in a game they can absolutely win the prudent play.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

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