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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Ottawa over Edmonton

7:00 PM EST. The Elks cleaned house this week, firing head coach and general manager Chris Jones after a 0-5 start, which includes last week's latest 37-34 loss to these Redblacks in Edmonton on Sunday. Edmonton was edged out in a close game, as the story has been for much of the season, but that loss last week was not like the ones they suffered in the late stages earlier in the year. Had a bounce or two gone their way, the Elks would have won. Instead, Edmonton was down 31-19 with just 8:24 to play before rallying with two late touchdowns to tie the game 34-34 before Ottawa hit a 38-yard field goal with zeros on the clock.

Market perception is that the Elks are poised to get off the schneid here after firing their coach, and that perception is reflected in the line movement this week. This game opened with the Elks taking back as much as a field goal at some outfits, but now they are the smallest of underdogs, on the road, on a short week, with a huge shake-up at the top. Perhaps interim GM Geroy Simon and offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson are going to be great at their jobs, and that would be great too, as the league needs new blood in those roles, and a pair of former stars would make for a great story. However, we aren’t here for great stories; we are here to try and take advantage of over- and under-reactions, fade public perception, and mine for value when we detect inefficiencies in the market.

One of the cardinal sins of sports wagering we preach about is not to “zig-zag,” which means if you bet on a team one week (say the Elks) and you rip up that ticket, you should not switch sides or “zig-zag” and fade that team you wagered on the next week. That said, there are exceptions to every rule, and although we backed Edmonton last week, we are switching gears here because there is an expectation in the market and the media that the Elks will get a boost from firing Jones. Perhaps they will, but it’s going to be very difficult for that effect to be implemented this week. There is no time to change the game plan, and if they have, there could be chaos and confusion on the Edmonton side.

Of course, the Redblacks must play on just four days' rest here as well, but they are the home side in this home-and-home with their West Division invaders. The Redblack offense feasted last week in Edmonton, and the Elks bring arguably the worst defense in the league into this game, allowing 30.4 points per game, with both their opponent passer efficiency ranking and opponent second-down conversion rates being the second-worst marks in the league. Last week, the Redblacks completed seven passes of 25 yards or more, including three that went 60 plus, and there is little reason for them not to torch the Elks here again today. Finally, if Edmonton was a -4-point favorite at home last week, the Redblacks should at least be given that same respect here, but they aren’t. Underlay.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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