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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

B.C. over Saskatchewan

7:00 PM EST. The Lions are not the target of this play, but they are a quality outfit capable of scoring in bunches, as QB Vernon Adams Jr. has been exceptional, leading the league with 1,752 passing yards and 11 touchdown passes. B.C. boasts the most potent offense in the league, accumulating more net yards of offense per game than any other team. The addition of running back William Stanback has provided a balanced attack, complementing Adams' aerial assault. With top receivers like Alexander Hollins and Justin McInnis, the Lions have multiple weapons to challenge a Roughriders' defense that is leakier than a bucket with a hole in it.

The Roughriders are 4-0 to start the season, but they are not being given much respect from the oddsmakers here in Week 5, as they are taking back what looks like a significant pile of points on paper. However, a deeper dive shows that the Roughies have had a horseshoe up their asses. Furthermore, Riders backup QB Shea Patterson will start his first road game after a modest debut last week (15-of-23 for 192 yards and 1 TD). As for the Roughrider defense, which has been praised for its improvement over last year, it is +10 in the turnover department, which masks the lack of quality in that unit. Remember, generating turnovers is not a skill; it's a luck-based statistic, and over time, those bounces usually even out.

Saskatchewan holds victories over Edmonton, Hamilton (twice), and Toronto, with those three teams going a combined 3-11 this season. Oh, and yes, the Argonauts have all three of those wins. So the Riders have played three games against a pair of teams yet to get off the schneid, but we'll note that Sasky trailed the Elks in Week 1, 21-8 with 13:13 to play in the 4th quarter before storming back, and they also trailed the Tabbies in Week 2, 30-20 with 5:33 to play before scoring 13 unanswered, including the game-winning field goal as time expired. In Week 4, the Green Riders won 30-23 in a game in which the Argos had more first downs, 22-to-14, but lost the turnover battle 6-0. When you win that turnover battle with a +6, as the Roughies did, you are supposed to win by more than a converted touchdown.

To summarize, the Riders are frauds, they've been lucky, and they've played a weak schedule, which has them primed to get exposed here against a quality opponent. The Riders take a huge step up in competition, but the gap in talent between these two teams is not reflected in this line. Underlay.

Sherwood

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