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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Calgary +7 over Winnipeg

8:30 PM EST. The Blue Bombers win one lousy game, and now we are supposed to respect the “W”? Forget that; we’ve watched every second of the Bombers this season, and in their four losses and that one measly win last week at home to Ottawa, Winnipeg was the second-best team on the field by a long shot. In Week 5, the Bombers got every break in the book, including knocking out Redblacks starter Dru Brown, and Winnipeg was still in a one-score ball game with 2:25 to play. Winnipeg kicked six field goals and ended the day with just 126 passing yards and 306 total yards of offense.

Now, the Bombers were without starting quarterback Zach Collaros in that game, as he hasn’t played since getting banged up versus the Stampeders in Calgary in Week 4. However, his return here is being overvalued greatly in the market, and this line is inflated because of it. Win, lose, or draw, over- and under-reactions are a market inefficiency we hope to try and exploit for a tidy profit. Let’s not forget the Bombers went 0-3 with Collaros at the helm, and he was terrible (0 TDs, 4 INTs). The overreaction to Collaros coming back tonight is off the charts and maybe he plays well and maybe the Bombers win and cover this game easily, but if you are bettng Winnipeg tonight, you are going with the worst of it, not the best of it.

The Stampeders, on the other hand, lost a tough road game in Montreal, where they had a 26-15 lead heading to the fourth quarter but did not score again, with the Alouettes posting 15 unanswered points for a 30-26 victory. The Stamps were a +7-point pooch in Montreal and covered that number. In Week 4, they were a +3½-point underdog to these same Bombers at home in Calgary and won that game outright, 22-19, in a game where they were the much better side. There is no reason to believe that will not be the case again tonight, and the inflated on top of inflated points being offered up here are a gift that we are not going to pass up.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Detroit    +134

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