Toronto @ Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan +4½ -107 over Toronto

Pinnacle +4½ -107 BET365 +4½ -110 Sportsinteraction +4½ -110 888Sport +4½ -110

Posted at 9:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Saskatchewan +4½ over Toronto

9:00 PM EST The Roughriders are off to an impressive start, going 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, thanks to a high-scoring offense. However, with quarterback Trevor Harris now on the six-game IL, there are concerns, as their offense struggled significantly when he was injured last season. That said, we are not in the business of dissecting X’s and O’s; we are all about gauging over and under reactions week to week, and the absence of Harris here in Week 5 has created a huge overreaction in the market.

Unlike last season, the Riders are better equipped to handle Harris' absence, as they have improved offensive weapons and might have a gem in backup QB Shea Patterson. Although Patterson completed just 4 of 10 passes for 41 yards when he replaced Harris in Week 3, his potential should not be underestimated. Patterson, a former five-star recruit and two-time third-team All-Big Ten selection at Michigan, has the talent to step up, even if he lacks experience at this level.

This will be Toronto’s first road game of the year after playing their first three games at home in Hogtown. The Argos are 2-1 on the season, and they are coming off a 30-20 loss to Montreal last Friday. That has the Boatmen coming into this Week 5 game on a short week while the Riders were on a bye, getting acquainted with Patterson taking first-team reps at practice.

Last week, the Argos were a +3-point underdog at home to the Als, and now they are spotting an inflated road point in one of the toughest buildings to play in, Mosaic Stadium. Not only that, but the Riders were a -2-point favorite over Hamilton in Week 3, and now they are also taking back inflated points because of the injury to Harris. Sure, Patterson has not started a game in this league and his playing time has been limited, but given his skill set and pedigree, the drop-off from Harris to Patterson might not be as steep as the market may think. This provides us with a potentially profitable scenario in which we are taking back inflated points in a game the Green Riders are very capable of winning. That's the value, friends.


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Our Pick

Saskatchewan +4½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

Edmonton -3½ -105 over Ottawa