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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Toronto over Montreal

7:30 PM EST. The defending Grey Cup champions and undefeated Alouettes return to the scene of their biggest triumph in a decade on Friday night as they step onto BMO Field’s pitch for the first time since last season’s stunning victory over the Argonauts in the East Final. Montreal is 3-0 so far, with wins over Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Ottawa, highlighted by last week's 47-21 thrashing of the Redblacks.

This is the first time since 2011 that the Als have started the season with three straight wins, and their hot start has their stock soaring as they sit atop the power rankings. The most notable sign of the Als' rise in market perception is their progression from being a +7½-point road underdog in Winnipeg in Week 1 to a -4 favorite in Edmonton in Week 2. Now, they are favored on the road in Toronto against a team many expected to be the class of the East even without starting quarterback Chad Kelly.

The Argonauts, on the other hand, are 2-0, but a close game with Edmonton in Week 3 (39-36) and a defense that has allowed back-to-back 300+ yard passing games have the Argos on the losing end of the X’s and O’s battle with the analysts. Those X’s and O’s may not matter on the field, but they do influence market perception. The Als bring a stingy defense that has allowed only 17.6 points per game, while the Argos have given up 27 points to the Lions and 36 to the Elks. Despite this, backup turned starter Cameron Dukes has been efficient, completing 81% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.

While much has changed since the East Final last November, it’s worth noting that the Als were a 10½-point underdog in that game. Today, they are favored at BMO Field, which seems out of place. Win, lose, or draw, the Argos are arguably the best value play of Week 3, and we are not going to pass them up. You can keep the points; we’re taking Toronto to win this one outright and hand the defending Grey Cup champs their first loss of the season.

Sherwood

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