Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 8:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
B.C. -3½ -110 over Montreal
7:00 PM EST. Week 12 was an ugly one for both the Lions and Alouettes, as B.C. lost 30-13 at home to Hamilton, while Montreal was waffled by the mighty Blue Bombers to the tune of 47-17.Now, we all know one week does not make a season, and so we are going to look at a seven-game sample which actually takes us back to the last time these two teams played each other on July 9th, in Vancouver.
As each journey must begin at the beginning, we’ll start with that 35-19 Lions win and cover as a -7½-point favorite over Montreal in Week 5. At the time, it was the Als' second loss in a row both straight up and Against the Spread (ATS), and it was the second loss of a three-game losing streak that saw Montreal fail to cover against the Argos in Week 6, this time, as a +6-point underdog.
After that loss to the Boatmen, the winds began to shift for Montreal, as it would rip off four wins in a row with three trips to the pay window in games against the Stampeders, Hamilton, and Saskatchewan. If you want to see how a team can become overvalued very quickly, one only has to look at the fact that the Als were -1½ at home to Calgary (won 25-18), -3 at Hamilton (won 27-14), and finally -5 at home to Saskatchewan where the Als would hammer the Roughriders, 41-12. Now we acknowledge the Als have not cashed tickets in the last two weeks, but they have had more success in that most important department than the Lions since that fateful meeting back on July 9.
B.C., meanwhile, saw its win over the Als in Week 5 begin a three-game winning streak (with two trips to the pay window along the way), which was all well and fine until the Lions met those darn Blue Bombers, also getting whacked 50-14, which set them on a 1-2 run both straight up and ATS, that included back-to-back losses with one coming in Saskatchewan (34-29) and the other being the lopsided loss, also as a double-digit favorite to the Tiger-Cats, mentioned above.
What that leaves us with in Week 13 is two teams that are both coming down the mountain, with the difference being the Lions are at the spot on the trail where they are now spotting fewer points in this game than they should be, while the Als are taking back far fewer points than they should be. It’s within that sweet spot that we find where the true value lies.
B.C. -3½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)