Calgary @ Toronto
Calgary +10 -105 over Toronto

Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +10 -106  BET365 +10½ -1 Sportsinteraction +10 -105 888Sport +10 -110

Calgary +10½ over Toronto

7:30 PM EST. With 10’s of thousands of people visiting the CNE (Canadian National Exhibition), perhaps some of them will trickle into the Argonauts game located inside the CNE grounds at BMO Field and support the home side. That’s of course if they can pull themselves from the midway and take a break from trying to win a stuffed animal in one of the many games being offered (you know, like bouncing a ping pong ball into a tiny wine glass 50 feet away for instance). The prizes won in 2023 are the exact same prizes you could’ve won back in 1914. Only in 1914, it was one cent to try your luck and today you get 3 shots for $10.00 to win a stuffed snake like the ones you can buy on Amazon for $12.00.  No value in that, friends. Inside BMO Field is where the true value lies and it’s not on the Argonauts. 

Toronto is by far the class of the CFL this year. The Argos are coming off a win and cover over Ottawa as a 10-point choice. They are now 7-1 straight up and also 7-1 against the spread. Oddsmakers have no choice but to inflate the price on the Argos because all they do is keep covering and paying off. Much like yesterday, after Montreal cashed in four straight but failed to last night, if you bet Toronto here, of course you may win but you are very, very late to the Argonauts ticket cashing party.  

This game opened with Toronto being a 8½-point favorite. The number has been bet up to the price you see here. It is worth noting that part of the reason that Toronto has been bet up is because Stampeders RB Ka’Deem Carey (quadriceps muscle) won’t play. Stamps OL Bryce Bell and DB Julian Charleswill will also miss this one.

Calgary lost to Winnipeg last week 19-18 but they did cover as a 4½-point pooch. The week prior, Calgary was destroyed 37-9 at B.C. The Stamps have three wins in 10 games and they only have two covers in their last eight games. What we have here is a classic case of buy-low and sell high. Furthermore, Toronto’s only loss this year was just three weeks when this same Calgary team beat them in Calgary 20-7. The “revenge angle” is a commonly misused strategy that handicappers use. We won’t suggest that it is never significant but in the case of the CFL in which every team makes the playoffs unless you go 1-17, the revenge angle is not in play. Toronto wants to win and so does Calgary. 

In that game in Calgary three weeks ago, Argos QB Chad Kelly was out. Today, Kelly is back in. That’s another reason why Toronto is getting bet so heavily.  You see, the Argos are averaging 33.5 points a game this season. However, in the seven games that Kelly has started and finished — all of them wins — the Argos are averaging 37.2 points per game. The Argos are winning by an average of 15 points. Only one of their wins came with an opponent being within eight points of them. We understand why the market would want to get behind Toronto here. They look unbeatable, they’re at home and they destroy teams when Kelly plays. That’s all nice but it’s also not sustainable and at the end of the day it always comes down to the same thing, which is taking back inflated points because one team’s stock is so damn high.


Our Pick

Calgary +10 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)