Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Winnipeg -5 over Toronto
109th Grey Cup - Mosaic Stadium - Regina, SK
6:00 PM EST. The 109th Grey Cup kicks off from the football capital of Canada, Regina, SK, featuring the defending two-time champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) and the Toronto Argonauts (11-7). Now, we don’t really want to get into X’s and O’s but it’s worth noting that there are 58 statistical categories that measure how teams stack up against one another and Winnipeg came out ahead in 46 of them. Winnipeg had six league all-stars, the Argos just three. The Bombers had four players take home major CFL awards this season, while the Argos were shut out.
We often discuss in-game variance and if we’re betting on that, once again, we have to side with the Bombers because they are a disciplined team that doesn’t beat themselves. This is not uncharted waters for Winnipeg. The game of football rewards those that pay attention to detail and are precise and physical. Those are the characteristics of Winnipeg.
It’s also worth noting that Toronto played Montreal three games in a row to end the season, which included last week’s East Final. Toronto would go 2-1 in those three games but could have easily gone 0-3, as one game was a single point winner and the other was a single score. Furthermore, prior to three games against Montreal, the Argos played Edmonton, arguably the worst CFL team by a landslide. Toronto barely beat the Eskies/Elkies, 28-23. To recap, in a span of six weeks, all the Argos have played is Montreal three times and Edmonton once. A team could pick up a lot of bad habits playing that pair and also playing Montreal three times in succession.
Meanwhile, Winnipeg made the best QB in the CFL look like a complete amateur last week. B.C. had a mere 14 first downs the entire game and lousy 28 yards on the ground. Winnipeg racked up 173 yards on the ground. Thus, while the Argonauts were beating up on Montreal and Edmonton, the Blue Bombers were putting a beatdown on B.C. Winnipeg is not taking a step up in class when facing Toronto.
In the CFL, a team from the East plays a team from the West in the Grey Cup. This year, it just so happened that Toronto emerged from a bunch of weak teams. Winnipeg is almost the same price today as they were last week against the Lions and that, my friends, is incorrect. It is going to take a lot more points than this to lure us into taking the vastly inferior team.
Winnipeg -5 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)