Today's Free Picks for
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-3½ -115-4 -110 -4 -110 SIA -4 -110
Posted at 1:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Montreal -4 over Ottawa
7:30 PM EST. The Redblacks are coming off a win and cover in Week 12, but that it came in Edmonton takes much of the luster off of that road victory. It was just Ottawa’s second win of the season, which now sees the Redblacks at 2-8. Despite that win in Edmonton, the Redblacks did not play well, as they were outgained by the Elks. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle failed to score a touchdown, while also throwing for just 219 yards on 21-of-32 passing. That the Redblacks won the turnover battle 3-0, and only won the game by a modest seven points tell su once again that a lot of things have to go right for Ottawa to stay within anyone's range.
There is a perception in the market that the Redblacks are a better team on the road than they are at home. That may be true, but is there really a difference between a catfish sandwich and a carp sandwich? No matter which way you slice it, Ottawa is in fact, a very bad football team.
Montreal comes in well rested off a bye after winning two straight. Readers of this space will know that we are not high on the Als. That is actually putting it pretty nicely. The thought of backing Montreal makes us want to puke. However, we have no bias, and cannot ignore the value that is being presented to us in this game.
When oddsmakers posted this Labour Day Weekend kickoff game, Montreal was tasked with covering a 6-point margin at most outfits. For reasons that we cannot explain, the efficient market has pounced on the Redblacks and driven that number down. Why? Say what you want about Montreal, but at least they have Trevor Harris, who has managed to play some competent football during his time in this league. Nick Arbuckle? Not so much. Dude couldn’t cut it with the Elks, THIS SEASON. Getting cut by the Elks is equivalent to being the 5th string QB on the Jets.
The Als made the commitment to Harris after trading Vernon Adams Jr. to B.C. this week. One has to figure that with nobody looking over his shoulder, Harris can relax and just play football. They could play this game 100 times over and we’d spot these deflated points each and every time. Let's get it.
Montreal -4 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)