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+5½ -110  +5½ -110   +5½ -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Edmonton +5½ -110 over Saskatchewan

10:00 PM EST. There are dozens of reasons not to back the Elks. The Roughriders have won their last six games against Edmonton,going back to October of 2018. That’s when Elks coach Chris Jones was still coaching in Regina. The Elks have played a league-high total of 79 players with at least one game played. Of those, 39 have made at least one start. That lack of consistency explains a lot. Edmonton is coming off a 46-14 loss to the Lions last week where the Elks gave up a record-setting 91.9 completion percentage, with B.C. QB Nathan Rourke going 34-of-37 on his passes. Want one more? The Elks have gone winless at Commonwealth Stadium over their last 11 games and have lost 14 of their last 15 at home. Edmonton’s last win at home was on October 12, 2019.

Now that all the negative B.S. is out of the way, we can focus on why the Elks are a good value bet tonight. There is a perception in the market that the Roughriders are a decent football team. Y’all, they are not. If the ‘Riders 4-4 record isn’t enough to highlight their mediocrity, their 4-4 record against the spread should seal the deal. The Roughies have dropped three straight games, two to Toronto, and one to B.C., who also blasted Saskatchewan, 32-17, in Regina. Saskatchewan’s last win came way back on July 8, nearly five weeks ago.

We’re going to focus on the last two games the Roughriders have played, where they were embarrassed by the Argos and Lions. In the Toronto game in Week 7, the Roughriders were outgained by 322 yards, including 205 through the air. The Argos had 28 first downs to Sasky’s 9 and Toronto won the time of possession by nearly 15 minutes. One could argue the 31-21 final flattered the hometown ‘Riders. Not to be outdone in Week 8, the Lions came to Regina and ran roughshod, outgaining Saskatchewan by 207 yards, posting 26 first downs to 14 and B.C. held the rock for over 11 more minutes than the Roughies.

It’s a lot to ask an average football team to cover a number on the road, but it’s an even tougher ask when that team has its head stuck up their ass. We know the Elks are a bad football team but so are eight other CFL teams and nobody is asking Edmonton to spot a price. Instead, the Elks are taking back inflated points on their home field against an overrated side. Perhaps the Roughies come out of their bye refreshed and ready, or perhaps the Roughriders are what we think they are. Putrid. Let's get this one.