Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 2:00 PM EST and are subject to change.
B.C. Lions +100 over Saskatchewan
9:00 PM EST. Apparently, the market was waiting for an announcement on the status of Saskatchewan quarterback Cody Fajardo in advance of this game before making its move, and really, who could blame it? The Roughriders were unable to keep up with the Argonauts without their starting pivot in last Sunday’s COVID delayed game, losing 31-21.
While the market may be bullish on Fajardo and the Roughies here in Week 8, we are not. It might be easy to write off last week’s loss because Jake Dolegala was making his first start at quarterback, but let’s not forget that Saskatchewan had leads at halftime and to start the fourth quarter. If you offered a team a seven point lead at home with 15 minutes to play, to a man, they’d take that in a heartbeat. It wasn’t Dolegala that was unable to stop the Argos in the fourth quarter. The Roughriders needed their defense to step up and seal the deal. They did not, giving up 17 unanswered points to the Boatman.
The Roughriders defense has now given up at least 30 points in back-to-back weeks. That 10-point defeat last Sunday actually flattered Sasky, as it was outgained by 322 yards. Yes, you read that right, 322 yards. The Roughies gave up 336 yards in the air and another 160 on the ground. If the Roughriders were not able to contain the Agros, is it fair for them to be able to stop the high-flying Lions?
B.C. played an ugly game last Thursday night against Hamilton, but we’re not going to let one quiet week stop us from backing the Leos here. First and foremost, the Lions opened as a 2½ point road favorite in Regina. That is not insignificant and the market took notice, as now the Lions have crossed over to the role of the underdog. That’s a proposition we can totally get behind.
It’s been a couple of weeks since B.C. has put up video game like numbers, but that now allows us to buy low on them. The Lions did not have high expectations coming into the season, but they were fast out of the gate whacking both Edmonton and Toronto before settling down. The Lions have not covered in two straight weeks, including as double-digit chalk in Week 7. Now just eight days later, they are a small pooch. That’s an 11-point swing, which is freaking huge.
Those that came late to the Lions party were burned in back-to-back weeks, that is no way to make friends in this market. While all things are not equal, it is worth noting that the Lions were favored against the mighty Blue Bombers two games ago and now they are a dog to the 4-3 Roughriders. So now you have a choice. Do you trust Farjado coming off COVID plus some knee-ligament damage that clearly has not healed and who hasn't played in two weeks or do you trust a team whose stock is suddenly low again and that has the horses to destroy teams. B.C. is healthy, its offense and defensive lines are dominant and now they're the dog? That’s not right so we're going to trust that the oddsmakers got it right when they posted the opener and the market has it wrong for pounding Saskatchewan because Farjado is a go. All the value lies with the Lions. B.C. outright is the call.
B.C. Lions +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)