Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.
Saskatchewan +110 over Toronto
7:00 PM EST. If you’re looking for a breakdown of X’s and O’s, you’ll have to tune into the pregame show and listen to that idiot Matt Dunigan try and explain it. Over here, we have a different approach so allow us to dive in and explain why Saskatchewan is the prudent play here.
First, this game opened with the Roughriders being a 6-point choice but then word got out that many Saskatchewan players contracted COVID-19 and would miss this game. At last count, the Riders had 11 players listed on the injury report with illnesses. Six of those players are out for this game. Coach Craig Dickenson all but confirmed that those players were involved with COVID -19 protocols. Furthermore, news came out that Riders QB, Cody Fajardo did not practice this week while dealing with a knee injury and COVID-19. Fajardo was also ruled out. The line then predictably dropped to Saskatchewan being just a -2 point favorite but it hasn’t stopped there.
The efficient market cannot get enough of the Argonauts. At the time of this writing (Sunday morning), Toronto has been hammered to the tune of crossing over to now being the favorite. It might not stop, as injury chasers hammer away. We have gone over this so many times but it’s always worth repeating because it’s so easy to get caught up in the narratives. Oddsmakers knew the situation when they took the line down and put it back up at Sask -2. What you’re seeing now is the market chasing/fading a depleted team, thinking they have an edge when the opposite is true. That is called predicting an outcome based on the information one is reading/hearing about, which is something we adamantly emphasize not to do. If you bet the Argonauts today, you may win but you’re spotting points or money when in fact, you should be taking back something. That’s called “going with the worst of it”. It also means you are on the same side of the wagering public and we all know how that usually works out.
We would be remiss to not mention that the Riders had no other choice than to promote Jake Dolegala from third string QB to starter. That, too, has the injury chasers salivating. This will be Dolegala's first regular-season professional start. Dolegala had NFL stints with the Cincinnati Bengals (2019), New England Patriots (2020-21), Green Bay Packers (2021) and Miami Dolphins (2021) before signing with the Riders on Feb. 14. He appeared in two pre-season games with the Riders, completing a combined 15 of 21 passes for 147 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has spent the regular season being a healthy scratch on game days. “It's a dream to start at a professional level,” Dolegala said Thursday. “I'm just looking forward to the opportunity. Dolegala was then asked on a scale of one to 10 how confident he was in his ability to perform Sunday. “A 10,” he said. “Why not?”
That’s the setup we present to you and now it’s your choice what to do. If we were in the prediction business, we, too, would have no choice but to back the healthy Argonauts. However, that is not our approach because prediction games have always been a losing proposition. We have no idea if the Argos are going to be able to take advantage of a depleted team or if the Riders will rise to the occasion and play their hearts out after being written off by everyone. What we know for sure is that Saskatchewan checks many of the boxes we’re always looking for. Market hammering the other side? Check. Injury chasers out in full force? Check. Public perception is that the host has little chance? Check. Overvalued favorite? Check. If you bet Toronto, you may win but don’t say you weren’t warned should you rip your ticket up. We’ll take the inflated number.
Saskatchewan +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)