Ottawa @ Hamilton
Ottawa +8 -105 over Hamilton

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smallbet365 +8½ -105 small888 +8½ -115  +9 -110

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Ottawa +8½ over Hamilton

5:00 PM EST. With Canada and several US States opening their doors to legal wagering, millions of new sports betting accounts are being opened up across Canada and the United States in anticipation of the college and NFL seasons starting soon. That provides us with another opportunity to discuss a strategy that you are going to read and hear about quite a bit over the years, a strategy that so-called “sharp” players endorse emphatically and it’s called +EV betting or beating the closing line. It’s something we do not and never will endorse because it’s not a winning strategy. You see, nobody has been able to prove to us that it is a winning strategy so don’t get caught up in thinking that it is.

+EV betting means being able to recognize a bad line when it first comes out and then jumping on that line before it moves to give you an edge by the time the game starts. An example of that would be last week when Ottawa opened as a +8½-point underdog in Saskatchewan. +EV bettors saw an opportunity and hammered the Redblacks in anticipation of that number dropping. Drop it did, as Saskatchewan closed as a -4-point favorite. For +EV bettors, they were holding a ticket at +8½ and therefore it was considered to be a big edge because they “beat the closing” line of +4 by a wide margin. The Roughriders went on to win 28-13 and +EV bettors were caught holding a losing ticket again.

B.C. opened -1½ last week against Winnipeg and +EV bettors hammered the Lions but lost again when the line closed at -3½ and Winnipeg crushed them. The list goes on and on and on and on of +EV bettors beating the closing line and losing. When you employ +EV strategy it means you are on the same side as the masses and quite frankly, that’s a side you do not want to be on because 95% of sports bettors lose money. If you employ that strategy, you will be among those 95% so when you see all these bettors that claim to have an edge, we promise you they don’t, which brings us to this game between the winless Tigercats and the winless Redblacks.

This game opened with Hamilton being a -6½-point favorite. +EV bettors have been pounding the host Ti-Cats ever since. +EV bettors have been reading the same things we have and trust that the oddsmakers were asleep at the wheel when they posted Hamilton as a -6½-point favorite. +EV bettors believe they are the only ones aware that the Redblacks will be missing linebacker Patrick Levels, defensive back Abdul Kanneh (ankle), receiver Justin Hardy (hamstring), offensive lineman Randy Richards and running back Brendan Gillanders. +EV bettors also believe that the oddsmakers didn’t compensate for Jeremiah Masoli being out in favor of Caleb Evans as the Redblacks starter here. +EV bettors used all that information that the oddsmakers “overlooked” to hammer the Tigercats and drive the price to where it is now.

We, on the other hand, will stick to our mantra of looking for value and reacting to overreactions. This is an overreaction on a winless team that is favored like they’re 4-0 playing a 0-4 team. It’s absurd. It doesn’t mean we are going to cash (+EV bettors win games from time to time) but it absolutely means we're going with the best of it by taking back a pile of inflated points.

We have no control over in-game variance that includes but is not limited to a punt that is shanked that leads to points, turnovers, a dropped pass, a subjective call by the refs, broken tackles, mental mistakes, offsides that result in a first down instead of a punt. These are only a few of the things that no crystal ball in the world can predict but yet people still try and predict games. We do not and nor should you. The correct approach is to look for inflated take-backs or underpriced favorites, that being spotting less points than what should be required. That’s value. Today, you have choices again, you can either take Hamilton spotting inflated points and being on the same side as the masses and injury chasers or one could grab a bunch of inflated points and let the chips fall where they may. That ends today’s lesson so now make the right choice.

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Our Pick

Ottawa +8 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)