Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:45 PM EST and are subject to change.
Calgary +4 -110 over Winnipeg
8:30 PM EST. In case anyone forgot, the Blue Bombers cemented their place atop this league in last Saturday’s 43-22 waffling of the upstart Lions. At 5-0, the two-time defending Grey Cup champions looked primed for another run. At least on the surface.
The Bomber résumé is full of holes, namely games they had no business winning. Week 1 against Ottawa ended in a 19-17 win for Winnipeg, despite it being outplayed in nearly every facet of the game. Week 2 was another hard-fought game with the Bombers pulling away 19-12 after holding the Redblacks to just three second-half points. Notable that the Blue Bombers were down at halftime. Week 3 saw Winnipeg get the best of Hamilton 26-12, but again, if you watched that game, you know it was tooth and nails until Willie Jefferson picked off Dane Evans and sealed the deal with an interception for a major. Week 4 was that infamous missed extra point by Toronto that handed the Bombers the win—23-22. That brought us to last week, where as we mentioned above, the Bombers played their best game of the year and blasted the Lions. Good for Winnipeg for putting it all together last Saturday night, but its stock is soaring, and it's inflated.
Week-to-week overreactions are high on our radar and what we are reading and hearing about the Blue Bombers is very telling. Until last week, Winnipeg hadn’t played a complete game. It wasn’t firing on all cylinders. Now, the Bombers are the class of the league. An unstoppable force, whose third straight Grey Cup is an inevitability. We’re not saying the Bombers aren’t going to three-peat. We aren’t saying they can’t cover this number. We’re just saying last week EVERYONE was on the Lions, us included and B.C. got torched. Now EVERYONE is on the Blue Bombers based on the reaction to last week's easy win.
We faded the Bombers last week and we don’t see any reason to come off that stance while they are getting so much good press. Like the Lions a week ago, Winnipeg has been the benefactor of nothing but praise after such a huge win. Meanwhile, Calgary walloped Edmonton in a rain-soaked affair that few stuck around for after the weather delay. Ho hum. Business as usual.
We’ve been critical of the Stamps all season, and truth be told, our stance has not changed. Does that matter? Of course not. Just look at the Elks last night in Montreal. Do you think we liked Edmonton? Good Lord, no! Because it would be disingenuous to pump Calgary’s tires when we’ve yet to back them this season, this is a good time to emphasize that we do our best to have no bias. Opinions and predictions is not our business. Value is and now that many in the market are about to zig-zag from fading Winninpeg to backing them, we're going to "stick with it". Winnipeg's stock is soaring and in the spirit of not predicting, we're selling. Winnipeg was a +3½ point pooch at close in Week 4. Now they are -4 at the time of this writing. That’s a big swing from one week to the next while also taking a step up in competition. No? It’s with that in mind, that we’re going to scoop up these points with pleasure and hopefully see you at the pay window.
Calgary +4 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)