Today's Free Picks for
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Toronto +3½ -110 over B.C.
10:00 PM EST. The Lions were idle in Week 2 and there is not much to say about their 59-15 mauling of the Elks in Week 1. They smashed Edmonton from gate to wire and made the Elks pay for every mistake. One has to figure though that the Lions were not served by having to take a week off so early in the year. When you blast a team by 45, you probably want to get back on the field ASAP, no? We put little stock in that Week 1 drubbing, as it was the first game of the year and the Elks have a pile of their own problems. If one is judging the Lions by their one big win, one might be reaching. Do not overreact to the outcome of just one game. Are the Lions great? Maybe. Are they overvalued in their second game of the season? Undoubtedly.
The Argonauts were expected to be the class of the East. They made several big-name offseason moves, like bringing in Andrew Harris and Brandon Banks. Toronto won its division last season and came up just a game short of making it to the Grey Cup. However, the new players were not the only new faces for the Argos, as the team lost much of what got them to the top of the East, at least on the sidelines, as former defensive coordinator took many of their assistants with him to Edmonton.
On the field, adding Harris forced the Argos to move on from last year’s leading rushers in DJ Foster and John White. The Boatmen also dropped their leading receiver, Ricky Collins. On defense, leading tackler Dexter McCoil retired while CFL pass-rushing mainstays Cordarro Law and Charleston Hughes were given the boot. The point is, this is not the same team that won the East last season. To expect this heavily revamped unit to take a major step forward might have been too much to ask, at least in game one.
The Argos were watchers in Week 1, before battling the Alouettes in Week 2, but it was not the grand debut Toronto was looking for. Instead, the Boatmen were in a battle, tooth, and nail with the Als and by all rights should have lost that game if not for a gaff from Montreal kicker, David Côte, who missed a 21-yard gimme that would have sent the Argos home 0-1. However, lost in Côte’s shame was the poor performance by Argos’ kicker Boris Bede, who missed a pair of field goals of his own, including a 26-yarder. Had he hit one or both, the Als may not have had the game on their foot. As it stands though, the market perception is that the Boatmen are fortunate to be 1-0 and looked nothing like defending division champions.
That provides us with this great opportunity to buy the Argos at a bargain and to sell B.C. when their stock is through then roof after one lousy week. Let's not forget that B.C. was projected to be one of the two bottom feeders in this league while the Argos were projected to be pure class. This is what we refer to as outstanding value due to the market overreaction from each team playing one game. We have often discussed Game 2 in any football league providing the best opportunities and this is a prime example of that. There is no choice here but to react to the market's overreactionm which means the prident play here is the Argos taking points.
Toronto +3½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)