Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 2:00 PM EST and are subject to change.
Hamilton +6 -105 over Winnipeg
8:30 PM EST. The Blue Bombers will be glad to be rid of the Redblacks after back-to-back dog fights to start the season. Winnipeg would escape both games with Ottawa with wins, but one could argue that the Blue Bombers could just as easily be 0-2 rather than 2-0.
In Week 1, the Bombers opened as 11½ point favorites, but were bet down to just -7 at most outfits before kickoff. Both opening and closing numbers would prove to be bad ones, as the Redblacks covered easily and were in a position to win, as Winnipeg needed a 25-yard field goal with less than 30 seconds to go to get the W, 19-17. Other than the final score, the Redblacks dominated that game, outgaining the Bombers by 152 yards. The market took a stand on the Redblacks and as long as they took the points, that bet was never in doubt. Easy winner, as they say. With such a close, hard-fought game, and a ticket cashed, the market could not be blamed for thinking the opening line that installed Winnipeg as a 7-point road favorite in Ottawa in Week 2 was a little cheeky.
When the Blue Bombers took the field in Ottawa in Week 2, they were favored by little more than a coin flip (-1). That was a serious “market correction.” Regardless of the line movement, the Blue Bombers were in tough once again, as they were up just 13-12 headed to the fourth quarter. A 27-yard hookup from Zach Collaros to Dalton Schoen with just over five minutes to go would be enough for Winnipeg to escape with a 19-12 win and cover. The market overreacted to Week 1 and most of those that backed the Redblacks were left ripping up their tickets in Week 2. That sets up the perfect zig-zag situation. The market was burned by the defending Grey Cup champions last week and it will not get burned again here in Week 3.
We backed the Tiger-Cats last week against the Stampeders and while we’d rather not recap what happened, we’re men of the people who will suffer through that pain for you in case you missed it. If you suffered through the Tabbie's second-half collapse as we did, feel free to take a deep breath and grab another beer.
At one point, one could only laugh at the second-half follies that took place at Tim Hortons Field last Saturday night, as if it were a performance of the Broadway hit “Hamilton.” The Ti-Cats were up 24-3 at halftime and then totally crapped beside the litter box. Turnovers, idiotic coaching decisions (into and with the stiff wind) and penalties were the order of the day and once Hamilton lost momentum, there was no way for it to get it back. Hamilton should have been up 31-3 and then 38-3 but instead, all those moronic decisions erased a 21-point lead with four minutes to play, with the Tabbies and Stampeders trading field goals before overtime, where the Stamps would finish the job, 33-30.
We trust that the appetite in this market for these Tiger-Cats will be slim to none after such a collapse, but we are going to stick with it by backing them again this week. The Tiger-Cats look good. Its defense is great. The ‘Cats stock is low. They are 0-2, while the Blue Bombers are on top of every power ranking after Week 2 and look weak but this market reacts to wins and losses above everything else which provided us with a great value play on the Alouettes last night and the same thing applies here. This game checks so many of our boxes that we are simply going with the best of it by scooping up these inflated points.
Hamilton +6 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)