Today's Free Picks for
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Saskatchewan/Edmonton u 49½ -110
9:30 PM EST. If you have been following along in the early going of this season, we’ve been attacking the unders in some of these games, as there is an expectation from the market that those that make the rules and play the games will turn these into high scoring affaries in 2022. So far, that has not quite come to fruition, as just two of the six games played so far have gone over their posted totals. One of those games went to overtime and the other was a turnover-filled free for all between these Elks and the Lions in B.C. last Friday night. Hell, Edmonton gave up 59 points just on its own.
The Roughriders put up 30 points in a win over Hamilton and are ranked #1 on just about every CFL power ranking after Week 1. To be frank, we don’t see why. In a league like the CFL, you can tell who is watching the games and who is not. The Riders were given a gift last week by the Tiger-Cats, in fact, they were given five gifts by way of turnovers, yet they were still in a dog fight halfway through the fourth quarter. When you have five turnovers and eight sacks, you should not be fighting for your life at home with seven minutes left on the clock.
The spillover from the Elks' troubled training camp and preseason made a mess last week in Vancouver. We do not know if the little tyrant Chris Jones thinks he will have his boys ready to play, but there is a great chance he’s lost this team already. Jones blasted his crew coming out of training camp saying the effort was weak and the cuts would be easy. Thanks, coach. Jones also switched quarterbacks as soon as he could last week, that is not a sign of a coach who knows what he is doing and the players know it. We’d love to fade the Elks today, but the market had similar plans, as they bet this number up from its 5½-point open to the inflated price you see now. We still think the Elks will get blasted, but we cannot play a bad number, nor does it matter what we “think.”
The market has also jumped on the opening total of 46½ and has been betting it up all week. We get it, the Elks gave up almost 60 all by themselves last week, and the perception is the league’s best team is coming to pick those bones. We don’t see it that way at all. As we’ve mentioned in our previous write-ups featuring these unders, the wide-open games the league was hoping to create to generate more scoring chances have not come to bear such fruit. The reality is, these clubs had their training camps cut short, their two preseason games smashed into a week and now they are expected to be in peak, mid-season form. That is not a reasonable expectation. We trust that these game scripts in the early going are going to be pretty consistent as these teams try to figure out just what they have and where they are going to slot on those power rankings. Tonight, we can take advantage of what is expected to be a high-scoring mismatch between varying shades of green. We trust what our eyes have seen thus far and that is all the value lies in the under. That is how we going to play this late game.
Sask/Edmonton u49½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)