Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.
7:00 PM EST. Rather than write these two wagers up separately, we are going to put them in one write-up, as the reasons given for these plays apply to both games.
We highlighted many reasons as to why we attacked the total last night between the Blue Bombers and Redblacks and many of those reasons are valid again tonight. We’re not going to regurgitate everything, but we’ll provide a few highlights for those that may have missed that play and why we see great value in the CFL unders today.
First and foremost, the introduction of a pile of new rules designed to increase scoring has been touted by CFL commissioner Randy Ambrosie, coaches and players around the league and of course those newly minted wagering “experts” that every network now has in their employ. As we pointed out yesterday, there was no difference in offensive play counts from the games that were played in Week 1 last year and the opener between Calgary and Montreal on Thursday. Well, now we can add Winnipeg and Ottawa to that mix as well.
Last night, the Redblacks racked up 54 offensive plays and the Bombers, 48 for a total of 102. When you factor in the four games played last season in Week 1 under the boring old rules and the two games played so far in 2022 under the new, exciting, wide-open game, that contest last night between Winnipeg and Ottawa produced the lowest offensive play total of those six games. In 2021, those totals were 111, 110, 110 and 104. In Calgary on Thursday night, the Alouettes and Stampeders combined for 109 offensive plays which was just one off the pace from the Stamps' season opener in 2021. The point being, don’t buy the hype on the increase in offense and scoring just yet.
It is with that in mind that we are going to attack the totals in both of these CFL games today. These four teams had little time to prepare for the 2022 season, as a labor dispute caused the preseason to be shuffled and training camps to be shortened. One would not be out of line to look at these games as warm-up affairs, as many of these starters saw little action, as these teams played their preseason games in a very short window. To be specific, the Roughriders played their two preseason games with just a two day break in between. The Tiger-Cats, Elks and Lions had it a little better go, playing two games in six days. Still, obviously not ideal.
To ask these offenses to be in mid-season form with a pile of new rules and arguably an inadequate time to prepare, these inflated totals look ripe for the picking. We’re going to trust that the offenses are not going to be at their best which gives us a great chance to cash both of these under wagers. That’s exactly how we are going to attack the remainder of Week 1 and you should, too.
Hamilton/Saskatchewan u48 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)