Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
9:05 PM EST. OT included. Both these teams were rather quiet at the deadline with Arizona picking up G Darcy Kuemper from L.A. in exchange for F Tobias Rieder and G Scott Wedgewood. The Wild shipped Mike Reilly to Montreal for a fifth round pick. One would think that the Wild could’ve gotten more for Reilly but that’s a discussion for a later date. Neither team dramatically improved or got worse at the deadline.
Minnesota now rolls into the desert on a five-game winning streak capped off by Tuesday’s resounding 8-3 victory over the Blues. The Wilds’ stock is higher right now than it’s been all season and we’re instant sellers. Minnesota’s road metrics are awful. In a recent 4-2 win over the Devils, they looked like the worst team in hockey for 40 minutes. In a recent 3-0 win over Chicago, the Wild were outshot 44-19 and they were recently outshot by the Rangers too in Minnesota, no less. On the road over the past five weeks, the Wild rank 24th and 15th respectively in Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and Corsi Against/60. That puts them in the Vancouver, Buffalo and Arizona range. The Wild are under .500 on the road and although they’re feeling good, they are still way overpriced here.
The Coyotes metrics aren’t great but their home metrics are better than Minnesota’s road metrics. Even if they weren’t, this price would still be too high on the Wild. Over the past five weeks, Arizona ranks 15th in Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For percentage at home. Arizona also ranks 14th in xGF/60 at home during 5v5 play over that same five-week span. Quietly, the Coyotes have won five of their past seven games and have picked up points in seven of their past nine games but they’re coming off an undeserving 3-1 loss at home to the Canucks in a game they dominated. Two of their last four losses came against the red-hot Flyers in OT and in Winnipeg, 4-3. This is the time of year that non-playoff teams have a big impact on who gets in who does not and it’s an enjoyable role that the players embrace. It’s also the time of year when said non-playoff teams are underpriced because “they’re playing for nothing”. We’ll take those inflated prices many times over the next few weeks and this is one of those times. Win or lose, the price on the Coyotes here is a bit out of whack.
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ARIZONA +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)