Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:00 PM EST.
8:05 PM EST. Regulation only. We’ve made our position on the Capitals very clear and stand by that position that their record is misleading and that they’re overpriced constantly. Nothing has changed in that regard and the Caps have the metrics to support our position. Only the Rangers, Islanders and Senators have worse Corsi Against/60 numbers than the Caps over the past five weeks. They get outplayed and outshot almost every night. In Winnipeg last game out, the Caps lost the 5v5 Corsi For battle 56-40. In fact, Washington has lost the last six Corsi For battles by counts of 56-40, 48-33, 56-41, 56-44, 58-31 and 49-46 respectively against Winnipeg, Detroit, Columbus, Columbus, Vegas and Pittsburgh. Those are some disturbing numbers for a team that is 32-17-7 and reveals just how lucky they have been. Washington’s metrics over the last five weeks are among the bottom four in the NHL in most categories, both offensively and defensively.
The Wild are coming off a 3-2 victory over the Rangers in a game in which they scored three times in the first six minutes in and did not score again over the next 54 minutes. That game was in Minnesota and the Rags actually outshot them. Losing the shots on goal battle to the Rangers is not easy. The game prior, Minnesota beat Chicago 3-0 but got outshot, 44-19! The game before that, Minnesota lost 4-3 in OT to Arizona and got outshot again, 40-28. Over the past five weeks, the Wild rank 25th in 5v5 Score and Adjusted Corsi For % and they don’t rank high in anything. Like the Caps, the Wild are another overpriced team but this line is speaking to us.
Washington has massive market presence, as they’ve been a regular season juggernaut for years, they have star power and they’re still in first place this season, plus they have great goaltending. The Caps were in Winnipeg on Tuesday and were a smaller price there than they are here, which cannot be but it is. That has us suspicious. The price on a team that is perceived to be as good as the Caps are is an enticing proposition here. The oddsmakers are fully aware of the Caps very weak metrics and we are too and it’s for those reasons that Washington will remain higher on our fade list than the Wild.
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MINNESOTA -½ +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)