Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:45 PM EST.
Regulation only. 8:05 PM EST. The more one watches this great game, the more one should realize how luck driven it is. As much thought that goes into the coaching, analysis and predictions, so much of it comes down to luck. This isn’t a particularly bold conclusion, as anyone who has had their heart broken while ripping up a ticket knows, but as it happens, some smart people have gone and done the math. There was a research team that studied the components of luck and skill in various competitions. The research was carried out as an analysis of the daily fantasy sports industry, where the skill-versus-luck question has serious real-life consequences.
Dude in one game flips a shot from the point with the typical amount of fencing in front of the goalie crease and the puck finds its way through a tangle of legs and skates and finally finds the back of the net. Dude in another game takes the same shot and it hits a leg and goes up into the crowd. A tightly contested game can turn on one weird bounce or one shot that finds its way through said tangle of legs and skates. Actual high danger scoring chances can often be in the single digits per team. Hockey is heavily influenced by randomness over the course of the regular season, which is one of the main reasons we insist on taking back prices, especially when playing favorites like this one here. If things bounce equally, we’ll cash this ticket because the Capitals are the second best team here and it’s not close.
Washington has turned a below average team into a 32-17-6 record and first place standing in the Metropolitan Division and they have accomplished this by playing without the puck often, getting outshot often and being dominated often. In recent back-to-back wins over the Jackets in a home and home series, the Caps went 2-0 while getting outshot 39-25 in the first game and 37-17 in the second game. The Caps were also dominated in 5v5 Corsi For % in both games, just like they were last game against the Detroit Red Wings in a 5-4 loss. In fact, the Caps have lost the 5v5 time of possession battle in six straight games. Over the past 25 games, the Caps rank 24th and 25th respectively in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and Corsi Against/60. That puts them in the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Arizona Coyotes range. It’s not just the past 25 games either. It’s the past 10, the past 25, the past 40 or the entire season. For those of you that don’t trust metrics, the teams that are on top of the metrics standings both offensively and defensively are Boston, Tampa Bay, Vegas and Winnipeg. Coincidence? NOT! The Caps are a first round exit waiting to happen but until then, there is very likely a lot of profit potential in fading them. Absolutely they can get lucky and win again here but we assure you that they’ll get outplayed and it will very likely be by a wide margin because the Jets are a juggernaut of a team with all the metrics to back it up. Again, the Jets do everything better than the Caps and it’s not close.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
WINNIPEG -½ +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)