Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
3:00 PM EST. Regulation only. The Avs are the hottest team on ice right now with eight straight wins and while they have not been dominant, they have been moving up the analytical rankings for weeks. In other words, they are getting progressive better. Colorado ranks 15th in both 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and Corsi Against per 60 minutes. The Avs have outscored the opposition 36-12 over their current eight-game winning streak so they can’t wait to get back on the ice. Furthermore, Colorado has been a beast at home all season and they’ll now play perhaps the most beatable team in the NHL. That said, this one is much more about fading the Rangers and the bargain we’re getting in doing so.
The Avs are in the -120 range on the money line, which is an absolute steal but they’re also a steal on the half-puck line so if you’re on board, play it as you will. If this game was as MSG, the Rangers would be a much higher price than the Avs are today and it’s all because New York is considered to be the superior team in this market. They’re not. The Rangers were one of five teams to play a team coming back off its break on Thursday and while they won 4-3 over the Sabres, they were the only team of the five that did not dominate. Over the past five weeks (since Dec. 13), the Rangers rank dead last in 5v5 Corsi For % and 4th worst in Corsi Against/60. While we’re more interested in the past five weeks than the entire season, you could take any five week span this year and find the Rangers at or near the bottom in Corsi For, Corsi Against and several other key metrics. To make things even worse, the Rangers strength of schedule also ranks dead last in the NHL so not only have they been putrid, they’ve been putrid against the easiest schedule in the league. The New York Rangers are the NHL’s weakest team and should be taking back Arizona/Buffalo like prices but because they’ve been extremely lucky, they are priced like a bubble playoff team and we couldn’t be happier about it.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
COLORADO -½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)