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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We’re not going to discuss the Devils much here because this wager is not really about them. This wager is more about fading the Kings as road chalk because L.A.’s eight-game winning streak, the longest in the NHL this season, is nothing more than a mirage.

The Devils are coming off back-to-back losses to the Rangers and Jackets while being tagged for five goals against in both. In fact, the Devils have allowed five goals against in three of their last four games but that looks much worse than it was. Columbus scored five times on 28 shots and Arizona scored five times on 27 shots. Against Columbus, the Devils played a completely dominating first period in which one beat reporter tweeted out that it was their best period of the year. A two-game losing streak is nothing to be alarmed about especially when they played so well in one of those games. 15 goals against or five goals against in three consecutive losses is nothing to be alarmed about either, as the shot total in two of those games was low and Cory Schneider remains in the upper echelon of goaltenders.

The Kings are not close to being as good as their record suggests, thus regression is inevitable. They are like that MLB starting pitcher with pedestrian stuff that has posted a 2.75 ERA over a 10-start stretch. Under the hood, the Kings are a fringe playoff team. There is nothing in any of their skill-based metrics that stand out. From November 3rd to the present, a stretch of five weeks, L.A. ranks 15th in Corsi For % per 60 minutes during five-on-five play and they tank 16th in Corsi Against over that same span. During that same five-week stretch, the Kings are ranked 24th in penalties taken and 17th in penalties drawn. In other words, they have taken more penalties than they have drawn over that stretch, which is not conducive to winning. No matter what metric one puts emphasis on, the Kings are a middle of the pack team or worse.

L.A.’s eight game winning streak started on November 25. Since then, they are ranked 16th in Corsi For % per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Over that eight-game winning streak, the Kings are ranked 23rd in Expected Goals For (xGF) per 60 minutes and they are ranked 20th in penalties taken over that same stretch. The number that sticks out during the Kings winning streak is a PDO (Shooting % + Save Percentage) of 106.33, which ranks tops in the league by a wide margin over that span. PDO is a luck driven stat. Whether you break it down by season, month or during its eight-game win streak, L.A. is an average team that is not dominating anyone but getting luckier than everyone. The numbers scream regression and we’re paying attention to that a lot more than their recent results.

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