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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

8:05 PM EST. OT included. Vegas was not supposed to be this good. They’re an expansion team in a playoff spot a good 10 weeks into the season and perhaps the most remarkable thing about their achievements is that they’ve done it with weak goaltending most nights. If they had stable goaltending, they may have another six or eight points to their already impressive point total. Furthermore, the advanced stats support what Vegas has achieved. Over the past month, Vegas ranks eighth in Corsi For % during five-on-five play. Even more impressive is its third place ranking in Corsi Against over that same time span. The Golden Knights defense is moving the puck out of its own end quickly and efficiency. They are doing so many things well and they are supported by the numbers. The Golden Knights have also taken the eight fewest penalties over the last month while drawing the third most. Throw in the will to win, the cohesiveness the team has shown and the price here and you can absolutely pencil us in against the NHL’s most overrated team.

Nashville is an incredible 18-7-3. They have achieved that record by being the second best team on the ice in more than half of their games. In its 5-2 win over Dallas on Wednesday, the Stars held a dominating Corsi edge of 62.32% to the Preds 31.37. The Preds scored five times on 14 scoring chances. In their 5-3 win over the Bruins the game prior, it was even worse, as Nashville was being outshot 30-9 at one point and scored five more goals on 15 scoring chances. The Predators’ Corsi For % during five-on-five play has been worse than their opponents in 12 of their past 16 games. Nashville has also taken the most minor penalties in the league this season (124). They’re a -22 in penalty differential, which is second worst in the league behind the Ducks and Anaheim can’t buy a win over anyone not named Ottawa these days. Luckily for the Preds, Pekka Rinne has regained the form that made him one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders a few years back. All the luck-driven numbers, shooting %, save %, penalty killing % and power-play percentage, are all working together at the same time to produce a lot of undeserving wins for the Predators. Of course they can win here but we’re not going to miss an opportunity to take back this price against them.

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