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Posted at 2:15 PM EST.

10:35 PM EST. OT included. The Senators have been shutout in back-to-back games so there is going to be a market overreaction to that. Ottawa lost in Anaheim 3-0 last night but it’s not because they played poorly. They actually played better than the Ducks but Ryan Miller was better than Craig Anderson. One beat reporter wrote after last night’s game, “This was probably the best Erik Karlsson has looked this season. He was finally starting to drive the offense from the back-end and seemed to have more of that explosive first-step that has become a trademark of his game”. The Sens have dropped nine of their past 10 games so their stock is lower than it’s been in a very long time. We also have the Sens playing the tail end of back-to-backs, which will add more value to them here because the market fades teams in that situation. Finally, it is very likely that backup Mike Condon gets the call in goal here, which also increases the take-back on the Sens, as backup always do. Ottawa is not playing as poorly as their results. The luck-driven stats are all ganging up on them at the same time and because wins and losses influence everything, the prices on the Sens will be extra inflated.

Los Angeles is on fire with six wins in a row. The Kings are in breathe easy mode, as they are not only winning but they have scored four goals or more in four of their past five games. Everything is coming up roses for the Kings right now, thus, this is a game we may catch them off guard in. L.A. returned home from a four-game trip last time out against Minnesota and easily put away the Wild, 5-2. L.A’s last three games have been against St. Louis, Chicago and Minnesota, three West rivals and the Kings won all three. They’ll now the second game of a three-game homestand against an East opponent that they rarely see. Another East opponent, Carolina is in here next so this is precisely the situation that the Kings might it difficult to get up for. Aside from all that, over the past month, L.A. ranks 18th in Corsi for % during five-on-five play while the Senators rank higher at 13th. Ottawa has too much talent to be taking back prices like this, especially against such an ordinary team like the Kings are. L.A’s PDO ranks 4th in the league while Ottawa’s PDO ranks 26th and that’s (luck) is the only real difference between these two. Big time overlay here.

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