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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Regulation only. The St. Louis Blues are legit. They have the surface stats and the under the hood numbers to support all the success they’re having right now. While we usually don’t get behind such strong teams because the prices on them are usually inflated, that does not apply here because it’s the opposition in this case that is overpriced. This wager is all about fading the Predators.

There is such a thing as home ice advantage and it applies to some teams more than others. One such team is the Predators, who play in a unique arena with a unique fan base and a unique atmosphere to create a home-ice edge like few others. Overall, the Preds are 13-6-2. At home, this very average team is 8-1-1. Combine the two with last year’s outstanding playoff run and these Predators might be the league’s most overvalued team at the present. Masked in all of that is Nashville’s 5-5-1 road record. The Preds five road wins occurred against Philadelphia (1-0), Chicago (2-1), Anaheim (5-3), Los Angeles in OT (4-3) and finally at Columbus. The Preds were outshot in all five road wins and out-chanced in four of them. Nashville has also been out-Corsied in nine of its last 10 games overall. In the month of November, Nashville ranks 26th in Corsi for % during five-on-five play. After Nashville’s top line there is a serious drop off in talent to the second line and then an even more serious drop-off to the third and fourth lines. Nobody can predict which goaltenders will be hot or cold or which team gets the lucky bounces but what we can accurately predict is the team that should have a significant edge in puck possession and spend more time in the offensive end. The Blue Notes should and likely will dominate this average team and we’ll therefore take our chances that they’ll beat them too without needing extra time to do so. 

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