Dallas @ COLORADO
COLORADO +102 over Dallas

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365 -111 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES +100

Posted at 2:15 PM EST. 

9:05 PM EST. OT included. The Stars are coming off a 3-1 home victory last night over the reeling Canadiens to run their home record to 8-2 on the year. Dallas indeed deserved to win, as they held a significant Corsi For edge while holding the Habs to just 21 shots on net. Dallas has now won two straight for the first time since the end of October but those two wins came against two reeling clubs in Montreal and Edmonton. Over its last four road games, Dallas is 0-4 while being outscored 20-7 over that span. Playing the 24th ranked schedule in the NHL this season, Dallas is 1-6 against top-10 teams and 3-7 against top-16 teams. 

Most of the talk surrounding “surprise” teams has been centered around Vancouver, New Jersey, Vegas, Los Angeles and Detroit but it is Colorado that is quietly playing some pretty good hockey. The Avs dominated the Red Wings in their last game and rallied from an unlucky 3-1 deficit to win it in OT. They’ve now won two of three after a recent stretch in which they won three in a row against Chicago, Carolina and Philadelphia and outscoring that trio 16-10. Playing the fifth toughest schedule in the league, Colorado is 3-3 against top-10 teams and 4-6 against top-16 teams. The Avs have drawn six, seven and six penalties respectively over its last three games, which reveals the havoc they’re creating in the offensive zone. However, the Avs have scored just one time over their past 13 PP opportunities but allowed three goals on seven short-handed opportunities in the same span. Those numbers are actually ridiculous and in line for a correction to the good. It’s a great sign when a team is drawing penalties while not taking many. Make no mistake that these Avs are coming on. They can skate with any team and better than most. Colorado’s metrics aren’t great but those numbers are negatively skewed because of the difficult schedule they’ve played. Their possession numbers are getting better and they also look better since the weight of the Matt Duchene situation has been lifted. Colorado is 6-1-1 at home and they catch the Stars playing the tail end of back-to-backs.

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Our Pick

COLORADO +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

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