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Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Islanders are 9-6-2 after 17 games while the Hurricanes are 7-5-4 after 16 games. Additionally, the Islanders have not lost at home during regulation with a 5-0-2 record at the Barclays Center. That sets up the Hurricanes as a live dog because they’re the superior team that is very likely to hold a significant possession edge here. Carolina is the league’s top possession team. On that fact alone, they are worth a bet when taking back a price. The ‘Canes have outshot their last seven opponents and most of those were by a wide margin. They outshot Colorado 60-27 during that span and also outshot Florida, 48-31, Anaheim, 37-25 and Chicago 38-30 among others. Carolina’s record is not better simply because its shooting percentage was low but that’s starting to even out. The ‘Canes have scored three goals or more in four straight and in six of their last seven games.

The Islanders are a middle of the pack team in just about every metric. They rank 10th in Corsi for, 15th in Corsi against, 15th in power play percentage and 17th in Expected Goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). What all that suggests is that the Islanders are a risky favorite and a live dog and that’s how we like to play them. The Isles winning percentage at home is unsustainable and it’s also worth noting that their goaltending, whether it’s Greiss or Halak, is below average. We’re after teams’ that are taking back a price and that figure to win the time of possession battle in the offensive end. The Hurricanes check both those boxes.  

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