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Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

7:35 PM EST.  Regulation only. The Sens 8-3-5 record might be the league’s most misleading record thus far. Ottawa is dangerous because of its ability to score goals with its top two lines but its third and fourth lines are a wasteland and so is its defense. The Sens are a bottom five team in Corsi Against per 60 in five on five play. They are also a bottom five team in Corsi +/- at -74. The Senators have won two in a row and three of their last four but those victories occurred against Colorado (twice) and Detroit once. In between, the Sens lost to Vegas, 5-4. To recap, Ottawa’s last four games have been against Vegas, Detroit and Colorado twice with the latter two games being overseas in Sweden. Five days later, the Sens are back home playing the Penguins. These are unchartered waters in that regard and we can’t imagine for a second that the Sens energy level will be as high as it should be. When the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens played overseas and played the very next week without a bye (the only two teams to do so), they both looked lethargic in their respective losses. The Sens have had even less time to regroup or to get reinvigorated. This wager is largely based on the Sens returning from overseas.

The Penguins are not in mid-season form but when they kick it into gear they still might be the best team in the NHL. Pittsburgh’s Corsi Against numbers are awful but we’re not going to put as much emphasis on its under-the-hood numbers as much as others because they are back-to-back Stanley Cup winners and it would be unreasonable to expect their intensity levels to be high every game so early in the season. They’ll kick it into gear after the All-Star break but this might be one game that their intensity level will be high. Ottawa and Pittsburgh played in last year’s East Final that went seven full games. The seventh game went into OT so the Sens were a shot away from eliminating the Penguins. A playoff series like that ignites a strong rivalry and we trust the Pens will be ready here. It may also surprise you to learn that the Penguins shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play ranks dead last in the NHL at 5.31%. That’s a number that is in for a correction to the good and the Sens defense combined with Craig Anderson’s .895 save percentage is right in line to aid it. Anderson is on the decline, as the years and mileage are starting to take a toll. Aside from the situational advantage and that they’re the superior team, the Pens have a big edge in goal too. 

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