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Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

7:35 PM EST. OT included. One always has to fear the Penguins, especially at PPG Paints Arena where the Pens are 5-0-1 this season. Furthermore, the Penguins are probably not in the best of moods after losing seven of their past nine games. Pittsburgh also has an advantage in goal with Matt Murray against Robin Lehner but all of that is not going to deter us from getting behind the Sabres at this price in this spot. For one, the Pens are in the midst of a brutal traveling schedule. It started on October 28th when they played in Minnesota to begin a five-game trip. After playing in Minnesota, the Pens went on to play in Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver before returning home for one lousy game against the Coyotes. After that single home game, Pittsburgh traveled again to Washington on Friday and then onto Nashville for a Saturday night game there. They are now back home for this game but this will be the ninth straight game since October 15 that the Pens have had to travel to their next destination. That’s tough and it’s even tougher when you consider all the hockey that this team has played over the past two plus seasons. Lastly, Pittsburgh’s defense has given up more scoring chances per 60 minutes than any team in the NHL but one and they’ve also played more games (19) than any other team. The Penguins are vulnerable right now while the Sabres’ stock is too low.

Power-play rankings and penalty kill rankings are all luck driven, much like turnovers in football. Every team sets up the same way for both. For the PP, teams either shoot it in and retrieve it or carry it in. Once they have possession, they look for the open shooter (usually at the point), get a man in front of the net to screen or deflect and then blast away. Sometimes it will deflect in and sometimes it will deflect over the glass. Sometimes it will hit a leg and go in and other times it will hit a leg and deflect 10 feet wide. If a team is scoring at a high percentage, it’s lucky and if they’re not, it’s unlucky. 

The penalty kill is the same too. Teams’ will set up that four-corner box and try and keep the players on the perimeter. The biggest proof that it’s all luck driven is the rankings from year-to-year. You may as well put all teams in a hat, pull them out and list them because there is no consistency whatsoever to team PP rankings or penalty kill rankings. Take a quick guess as to which team led the NHL in PP percentage last year. If you said Pittsburgh you would be wrong. If you said Buffalo, you would be correct. Buffalo’s PP% last year was 24.5%. The league average is around the 18% mark. This season, Buffalo’s PP ranks not 1st but 29th at 14% and they are not worse this year in terms of personnel. The point is that Buffalo’s power-play is very likely in for a correction to the good and this is as good a place as any for that to start. Tired teams’ have a difficult time staying out of the box and Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to anyway. Additionally, the Sabres have outshot five of their last six opponents including at Montreal in their last game. In fact, the Sabres have allowed 29, 22, 25 and 29 shots on net in four of its last five and no more than 31 shots on net in six straight. The Sabres are undervalued and very worthy of a bet here. 

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