BEST LINES: Pinnacle -110 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110

Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

SAN JOSE -110 over Tampa Bay

10:30 PM EST. OT included. The Lightning are 11-2-2 and getting a lot of press for obvious reasons. It isn't too stunning that Steven Stamkos (25 points in 15 games) and Nikita Kucherov (23 points in 15 games) have been beneficiaries of an uptick in scoring league-wide, but the major difference in Tampa Bay's attack from 2016-17 to this season is the goal support up and down the lineup. Six other players have four goals or more, including rookie defenseman Mikhail Sergachev and forward Brayden Point, who has 16 points in 15 games. However, the Bolts have not been as dominant as the media or their record suggests.

Tampa ranks 17th out of 31 teams in Corsi For % per 60 minutes. They also rank 17th in overall Corsi +/- during five-on-five play with a overall score of -5. To give you an idea of how non-dominating that is, Carolina ranks 1st in the league with an overall score of +173. Ranking above the Bolts are Vancouver, the Islanders, Nashville, Chicago, Dallas and Boston among others. Ranking far above the Bolts is tonight’s opponent, the Sharks, who rank 7th overall in Corsi +/- The Bolts are scoring a boatload of goals so their stock is soaring but this is a weak defensive team that is in for some regression as soon as their luck inevitably runs cold. Tampa ranks second in the luck-driven PDO department while the Sharks rank 25th. In other words, everything is going in for the Bolts. They have created less scoring chances than San Jose but have scored 23 more goals more. The scoring numbers for the Bolts are very simply unsustainable.

On October 30th, the Toronto Maple Leafs went into San Jose and lost 3-2 in what might be the most misleading score of the year so far. The Sharks outshot the Leafs 39-18 but it was even worse, as Toronto could not get out of its own end. That the score wasn’t 8-2 is more surprising than the actual final score. We mention that because Tampa and Toronto are very similar teams. Both teams are speedy up front with immensely talented forwards that can string together a bunch of goals very quickly. Toronto’s puck possession numbers are actually superior to the Lightning’s possession numbers. The Sharks dominated the Leafs and they can do the same to the  Bolts. San Jose’s relentless forecheck is a staple of Peter DeBoer coached teams.The Sharks are a top-6 team in both Corsi for and Corsi against. However, San Jose has scored the third fewest even-strength goals in the NHL and that’s a case of nothing but bad luck. The Sharks are at home, they are actually the superior team here and they cannot be a dog or evenly priced in their own building against a team with a defense as weak as the one they’ll see here. Tampa’s record is off the charts but the product on the ice is not even close to being as good as their 13 wins in 15 games suggest. The other side of that coin is the the Sharkies are playing a dominating style of hockey without the results.

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